Unpacking estimates of task duration: The role of typicality and temporality
Unpacking estimates of task duration: The role of typicality and temporality
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jesp.2013.10.009
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Thomas, Kevin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hadjichristidis, Constantinos;Summers, Barbara;Thomas, Kevin
对任务持续时间判断的研究表明，在估算任务持续时间之前，将一个多面任务分解成多个组件会增加估算。在三个研究中，我们发现拆包一个复杂的任务可以增加、减少或不受影响的任务持续时间估计，这取决于拆包组件的典典性和它们在任务序列中的时间位置。拆包非典型的长组件增加了任务持续时间估计，而拆包非典型的短组件减少了估计（研究1）。拆包非典型的早期组件增加了任务持续时间估计，而拆包非典型的晚期组件减少了估计（研究2）。拆包典型的早期或晚期组件不会影响估计（研究3）。我们基于任务持续时间估计涉及心理模拟过程的想法，并通过利用概率判断中的拆包理论来解释这些结果，该理论强调拆包组件的典型化作用。这些发现暗示了概率判断和任务持续时间估计之间的深层概念联系，但也显示了差异，例如时间性对估计持续时间的影响。(C) 2013爱思唯尔公司版权所有。
Research in task duration judgment has shown that unpacking a multifaceted task into components prior to estimating its duration increases estimates. In three studies, we find that unpacking a complex task can increase, decrease, or leave unaffected task duration estimates depending on the typicality of the unpacked components and their temporal position in the task sequence. Unpacking atypical long components increases task duration estimates, while unpacking atypical short components decreases estimates (Study 1). Unpacking atypical early components increases task duration estimates, while unpacking atypical late components decreases estimates (Study 2). Unpacking typical early or late components leaves estimates unaffected (Study 3). We explain these results based on the idea that task duration estimation involves a mental simulation process, and by drawing on theories of unpacking in probability judgment that emphasize the role of the typicality of the unpacked components. These findings hint at a deep conceptual link between probability judgment and task duration estimation but also show differences, such as the influence that temporality exerts on estimated duration. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.