A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century
A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century
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DOI：
10.1056/nejmsr043743
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发表时间：
2005-03-17
影响因子：
158.5
通讯作者：
Ludwig, DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Olshansky, SJ;Passaro, DJ;Ludwig, DS
对预期寿命的预测是公共政策的重要组成部分，它影响着社会保障和医疗保险等基于年龄的权利计划。尽管社会保障局最近提高了对21世纪美国人寿命的估计，但美国目前的肥胖趋势表明，这些估计可能并不准确。从我们对肥胖对寿命影响的分析中，我们得出结论，过去两个世纪预期寿命的稳步增长可能很快就会结束。
Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.