Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age.
Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-32653-x
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发表时间：
2022-08-25
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Lenton, Timothy M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arellano-Nava, Beatriz;Halloran, Paul R.;Boulton, Chris A.;Scourse, James;Butler, Paul G.;Reynolds, David J.;Lenton, Timothy M.
进入小冰期的冷却过渡是人类活动导致全球变暖之前气候系统的最后一次显著变化。据推测，海冰海洋反馈持续到小冰期的初始冷却，通过削弱副极地环流;一个系统，已被提出表现出双稳态。然而，在这一转变的双稳性的经验证据是缺乏的。我们使用北冰岛大陆架三个年度分辨率双壳类代理记录中的弹性统计指标，表明北大西洋亚极地气候系统在小冰期之前的两次事件中不稳定。这种弹性的丧失表明对一个稳定状态的吸引力降低，并且系统容易受到突然转变的影响。这两个事件发生在更广泛的副极地北大西洋变化之前，与副极地环流不稳定和临界点的接近相一致，可能预示着向小冰期条件的过渡。双壳类揭示了北大西洋亚极地的不稳定性，并显示出在过渡到小冰期期间越过临界点的迹象。
The cooling transition into the Little Ice Age was the last notable shift in the climate system prior to anthropogenic global warming. It is hypothesised that sea-ice to ocean feedbacks sustained an initial cooling into the Little Ice Age by weakening the subpolar gyre circulation; a system that has been proposed to exhibit bistability. Empirical evidence for bistability within this transition has however been lacking. Using statistical indicators of resilience in three annually-resolved bivalve proxy records from the North Icelandic shelf, we show that the subpolar North Atlantic climate system destabilised during two episodes prior to the Little Ice Age. This loss of resilience indicates reduced attraction to one stable state, and a system vulnerable to an abrupt transition. The two episodes preceded wider subpolar North Atlantic change, consistent with subpolar gyre destabilisation and the approach of a tipping point, potentially heralding the transition to Little Ice Age conditions. Bivalves reveal that the subpolar North Atlantic destabilised and shows signs of having crossed a tipping point during the transition into the Little Ice Age.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Ionita M;Scholz P;Lohmann G;Dima M;Prange M
通讯作者：
Prange M
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Dakos V;Carpenter SR;Brock WA;Ellison AM;Guttal V;Ives AR;Kéfi S;Livina V;Seekell DA;van Nes EH;Scheffer M
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Scheffer M
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Boers, Niklas
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Levermann, Anders
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作者：
Harning, David J.;Jennings, Anne E.;Sepulveda, Julio
通讯作者：
Sepulveda, Julio