The timing of divorce: Predicting when a couple will divorce over a 14-year period
The timing of divorce: Predicting when a couple will divorce over a 14-year period
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1741-3737.2000.00737.x
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发表时间：
2000-08-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Levenson, RW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gottman, JM;Levenson, RW
本文通过一项长期的前瞻性纵向研究，探讨了离婚的可预测性。过去的研究表明，有两个时期对婚姻的存续最为关键：（a）结婚的头7年，据了解，有一半的离婚发生在这段时期;（B）第一个孩子满14岁的时期，这被认为是人生历程中婚姻满意度的最低点。根据本研究，时间I的交互变量（在冲突期间和配偶分离至少8小时后的日常讨论中）和非交互变量被用来预测婚姻早期和后期的离婚。一组不同的变量预测早期离婚比预测后来离婚。冲突期间的负面影响预测早期离婚，但它并没有预测食人族离婚。相比之下，在日常事件和冲突讨论中缺乏积极影响预测了后来的离婚，但它并没有预测早期离婚。预测是可能的，在第二年期间的研究与模型，包括婚姻满意度，婚姻解体的想法，和情感互动的对话。该模型预测离婚的准确率为93%。
This paper investigates the predictability of divorce in a long-term, prospective longitudinal study. Past research has indicated that 2 periods can be considered the most critical for the survival of marriages: (a) the first 7 years of marriage, during which half of all divorces are known to occur, and (b) the period during which the first child reaches 14 years of age, which has been suggested as a low point for marital satisfaction in the life course. lit the present study, interaction variables at Time I (both during conflict and in an events-of-the-day discussion following separation of the spouses for at least 8 hours) and noninteractive variables were used to predict divorcing both early and later in the marriage. A different set of variables predicted early divorcing than predicted later divorcing. Negative affect during conflict predicted early divorcing, but it did not predict Eater divorcing. By contrast, the lack of positive affect in events-of-the-day and conflict discussions predicted later divorcing, but it did not predict early divorcing. Prediction was possible over the Ii-year period of the study with a model that included marital satisfaction, thoughts of marital dissolution, and affective interaction in both conversations. The model predicted divorce with 93% accuracy.