Modelling foot-and-mouth disease: A comparison between the UK and Denmark
Modelling foot-and-mouth disease: A comparison between the UK and Denmark
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.01.008
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发表时间：
2008-06-15
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Keeling, Matt J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tildesley, Michael J.;Keeling, Matt J.
虽然英国2001年的口蹄疫(FMD)暴发提供了极其丰富的时空流行病数据来源，但尚不清楚英国的模型和参数如何转化为其他情景。在这里，我们考虑如何将用于捕捉英国疫情的模型框架应用于丹麦假想的口蹄疫疫情。虽然猪在英国的疫情中扮演了相对次要的角色(只在18个农场感染了猪)，但它们主导了丹麦的牲畜格局。此外，目前还不清楚英国的传播参数是否会转移到丹麦，那里的耕作方式可能会有很大不同。因此，我们探索了大量的高维参数空间，但试图将最终的疫情规模、扩散到丹麦岛屿的风险和控制措施的潜在成功与流行病动态的早期指标联系起来。因此，这一广泛的模拟工作的结果使我们能够根据最初几代人观察到的行为，及时提供关于控制选择的建议。(C)2008爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Whilst the UK 2001 FMD (foot-and-mouth disease) outbreak provides an extremely rich source of spatio-temporal epidemic data, it is not clear how the models and parameters from the UK can be translated to other scenarios. Here we consider how the model framework used to capture the UK epidemic can be applied to a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Denmark. Whilst pigs played a relatively minor role in the UK epidemic (being the infected animal on just 18 farms), they dominate the Danish livestock landscape. In addition, it is not clear whether transmission parameters from the UK will transfer to Denmark where farming practices may be significantly different. We therefore explore a large volume of high-dimensional parameter space, but seek to relate final epidemic size, risk of spread to Danish islands and potential success of control measures, to early indicators of epidemic dynamics. The results of this extensive modelling exercise therefore allow us to provide timely advice on control options based on the observed behaviours of the first few generations. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.