The Value of PV Power Forecast and the Paradox of the “Single Pricing” Scheme: The Italian Case Study
The Value of PV Power Forecast and the Paradox of the “Single Pricing” Scheme: The Italian Case Study
复制标题
光伏发电预测的价值与“单一定价”方案的悖论：意大利案例研究
DOI：
10.20944/preprints202007.0128.v1
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
C. Cornaro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marco Pierro;D. Moser;R. Perez;C. Cornaro
光伏并网的主要问题之一是限制太阳能引起的不平衡，因为这些不平衡会破坏电力系统的安全性和稳定性。提高光伏发电的预测准确性对于实现大规模太阳能渗透变得至关重要。特别是，提高大型太阳能发电场发电量的预测准确性对于生产商/贸易商最大限度地减少不平衡成本以及输电系统运营商确保稳定性都非常重要。在本文中，我们为意大利全国 1325 个地点的公用事业规模光伏 (PV) 发电厂的日前预测准确性提供了基准。然后，我们使用这些基准预测和实际能源价格来计算意大利能源市场监管框架背景下预测准确性和准确性改进的经济价值。通过这项研究，我们进一步指出了对意大利“单一定价”体系的几个重要批评，该体系在减少失衡量方面带来了矛盾和适得其反的影响。最后，我们提出了新的市场定价规则和创新行动，以克服当前调度法规的不良影响。
One of the major problem of photovoltaic grid integration is limiting the solar-induced imbalances since these can undermine the security and stability of the electrical system. Improving the forecast accuracy of photovoltaic generation is becoming essential to allow a massive solar penetration. In particular, improving the forecast accuracy of large solar farms’ generation is important both for the producers/traders to minimize the imbalance costs and for the transmission system operators to ensure stability. In this article, we provide a benchmark for the day-ahead forecast accuracy of utility scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in 1325 locations spanning the country of Italy. We then use these benchmarked forecasts and real energy prices to compute the economic value of the forecast accuracy and accuracy improvement in the context of the Italian energy market’s regulatory framework. Through this study, we further point out several important criticisms of the Italian “single pricing” system that brings paradoxical and counterproductive effects regarding the need to reduce the imbalance volumes. Finally, we propose a new market-pricing rule and innovative actions to overcome the undesired effects of the current dispatching regulations.