USE OF MECHANISTIC MODELS TO ESTIMATE LOW-DOSE CANCER RISKS
USE OF MECHANISTIC MODELS TO ESTIMATE LOW-DOSE CANCER RISKS
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00073.x
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发表时间：
1994-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
CRUMP, KS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
CRUMP, KS
The utility of mechanistic models of cancer for predicting cancer risks at low doses is examined. Based upon a general approximation to the dose-response that is valid at low doses, it is shown that at low doses the dose-response predicted by a mechanistic model is a linear combination of the dose-responses for each of the physiological parameters in the model that are affected by exposure. This demonstrates that, unless the mechanistic model provides a theoretical basis for determining the dose-responses for these parameters, the extrapolation of risks to low doses using a mechanistic model is basically ''curve fitting,'' just as is the case when extrapolating using statistical models. This suggests that experiments to generate data for use in mechanistic models should emphasize measuring the dose-response for dose-related parameters as accurately as possible and at the lowest feasible doses.
