Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations
Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations
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在期望的海洋中驾驭远见：期望社会学的教训
DOI：
10.1080/09537325.2012.715478
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Lente
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Lente
远见可以被描述为对可能的未来的表述。它具有广泛的应用范围，并以不同的方法、不同的目的和不同的环境使用。然而，对科学技术的预期并不局限于远见，而是以许多更非正式的方式发生。本文考察了社会技术发展充斥着正式和非正式预期的现象，并讨论了这一条件对预见的影响。回顾了前瞻性研究的范围以及预期社会学的主要成果，预期社会学研究了科学技术中预期的非正式生产和流通。最后，从预期社会学中得出了三个一般性的经验教训，并讨论了这些经验教训如何支持或限制了远见的野心。
Foresight can be described as the articulation of possible futures. It has a range of applications and is used with different methods, for different objectives and in different settings. Yet, anticipation in science and technology is not limited to foresight, but occurs in many more informal ways. This paper investigates the phenomenon that socio-technical developments are saturated with formal and informal anticipations and discusses the implications of this condition for foresight. The range of foresight studies is reviewed as well as the main results of the sociology of expectations, which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. Finally, three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations are derived, and it is discussed how these support or limit the ambitions of foresight.