Prediction in Survival Analysis: Model or Medic?
Prediction in Survival Analysis: Model or Medic?
复制标题
生存分析中的预测：模型还是医生？
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Margaret Jones
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Henderson;Margaret Jones
从经验丰富的医生那里获得了两组肺癌患者的主观生存时间预测。通过非标准损失函数将预测与结果进行比较，该函数也用于评估基于比例风险模型的客观预测的准确性。无论是主观的还是客观的预测都不会给人留下深刻的印象。结果表明，比例风险模型可以解释的变化的比例总是相对较低的基础假设的结果，因此点预测应该是相对不准确的，这一系列的模型。
Subjective survival time predictions were obtained from experienced physicians for two groups of lung cancer patients. Predictions are compared with outcome by means of a non-standard loss function, which is also used to assess the accuracy of objective predictions based on proportional hazards models. Neither subjective nor objective predictions are particularly impressive. It is shown that the proportion of variation which can be explained by a proportional hazards model will invariably be relatively low as a result of the underlying assumptions, and hence point predictions should be expected to be relatively inaccurate for this family of models.