A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change
A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1793
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发表时间：
2013-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Warren, R. F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, N. W.;Lowe, J. A.;Warren, R. F.
这项研究首次对排放政策避免的气候变化影响的程度和不确定性进行了全球范围的多部门区域评估。分析表明，这里考虑的最严格的排放政策-保持在2摄氏度以下的目标的可能性为50%-到2100年，相对于达到4摄氏度的“一切照旧”路径，减少了20-65%的影响，并且可以将影响推迟几十年。减缓政策的影响因部门和地区而异，到2030年只有少数政策可以明显看出。到2100年避免的影响更大程度上取决于排放峰值的日期和水平，而不是排放下降速度，更早、更低的排放峰值可以避免更多影响。尽管气候变化的空间格局存在不确定性，但全球范围内避免的影响的估计比例相对稳健，但避免的影响的绝对数量变化更大，因此不确定。
This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here-which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2 degrees C temperature rise target-reduces impacts by 20-65% by 2100 relative to a 'business-as-usual' pathway which reaches 4 degrees C, and can delay impacts by several decades. The effects of mitigation policies vary between sectors and regions, and only a few are noticeable by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.