Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre‐industrial level
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre‐industrial level
复制标题
全球变暖比工业化前水平高 1.5、2 和 3°C 对拉普拉塔盆地的水文影响
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发表时间：
2018
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通讯作者：
I. Camilloni
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作者：
N. Montroull;R. Saurral;I. Camilloni
2015年《巴黎协定》通过后，评估不同全球平均气温上升水平下的区域气候和水文影响对指导决策者和水资源管理规划者至关重要。鉴于目前的排放趋势接近本世纪末升温3°C的路径，本研究调查了在巴黎设定的升温1.5°C和2°C阈值以及高于工业化前水平3°C时，拉普拉塔盆地（LPB）预估的区域水文影响。我们还探讨了遵循中排放或高排放代表性浓度途径（RCP）实现不同变暖目标的后果。为了确定降水、蒸散发、径流和河流流量的可能变化，我们使用了变入渗能力(VIC) -分布水文模型，结合来自部门间影响模型比对项目2a阶段（ISIMIP）的偏差校正的GCM输出。由于水文气象变量在LPB上的行为不均匀，我们分析了四个子流域（巴拉圭、paran<e:1>、Iguazú和乌拉圭）全球平均温度和rcp不同变化的影响。总的来说，亚盆地上的大多数变化表明，随着温度的升高，环境变得更加湿润。rcp的比较表明，中排放情景下降水、蒸散发和径流的增加更大。综合陆地水循环各分量的不同响应，各子流域年平均流量的变化幅度在±20%之间。然而，在大多数情况下，变化的迹象在很大程度上取决于为达到变暖水平而选择的RCP。
The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global‐mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre‐industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high‐emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)‐distributed hydrology model in combination of bias‐corrected GCM outputs from the Inter‐Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub‐basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub‐basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium‐emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub‐basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.