The impact of climate change on policy-relevant indicators of temperature extremes in the United Kingdom
The impact of climate change on policy-relevant indicators of temperature extremes in the United Kingdom
复制标题
气候变化对英国极端气温政策相关指标的影响
DOI：
10.1002/cli2.12
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Arnell N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arnell N
气候变化将增加英国热浪的频率并减少寒流的频率。本文评估了以 UKCP18 气候预测为代表的气候变化对一系列与英国政策相关的极端炎热和寒冷指标的影响。这些指标以当前的关键阈值表示，超过该阈值就会发出警报或实施具体行动，而不是对健康和福祉的影响。在所有情况下，热浪和热健康警报的频率和持续时间都会增加，其中热浪和热健康警报的绝对数量最多的是英格兰南部和东部，到 2020 年代，影响工人生产力的炎热天气事件的可能性会增加一倍。寒冷天气事件——引发健康和社会护理计划以及福利支付——将变得不那么频繁，但气候变化对寒冷事件的影响比对炎热事件的影响要小得多，而且它们将继续发生。至少到 2040 年代，气候变化的预计影响不会在很大程度上取决于假设的全球排放变化，可能变化的范围主要取决于给定排放路径下英国气温变化的不确定性。 2050 年代以后，影响很大程度上取决于未来的排放量。高排放世界的影响将比低排放世界大得多。预计热浪警报的增加以及热浪的持续时间和强度，不仅意味着需要审查热浪应急计划安排——特别是考虑什么应该被视为“正常”夏季天气——而且还意味着需要加大力度减少极端高温事件的脆弱性。与此同时，寒冷天气事件仍将继续以足够的频率发生，因此需要维持计划。
Climate change will increase the frequency of heatwaves in the United Kingdom and reduce the frequency of cold spells. This paper evaluates the effect of changes in climate as represented by UKCP18 climate projections on a series of indicators of heat and cold extremes relevant to policy in the United Kingdom. These indicators are expressed in terms of current critical thresholds beyond which alerts are issued or specific actions implemented, rather than impacts on health and well‐being. The frequency and duration of heatwave and heat–health alerts increase under all scenarios, with the greatest absolute number of events in the south and east of England where the chance of hot weather events affecting worker productivity doubles by the 2020s. Cold weather events – triggering health and social care plans and benefit payments – will become less frequent, but the effects of climate change on cold events are much smaller than on hot events and they will continue to occur. Until at least the 2040s, the projected effects of climate change do not depend strongly on the assumed change in global emissions, and the range in possible changes is primarily determined by uncertainty in the change in temperature in the United Kingdom for a given emissions pathway. Beyond the 2050s, the impacts are strongly dependent on future emissions. Impacts in a high‐emissions world will be considerably larger than in low‐emissions world. The projected increase in heatwave alerts, and the duration and intensity of heatwaves, implies not only a need to review heatwave emergency planning arrangements – looking in particular at what should become regarded as ‘normal’ summer weather – but also increased efforts to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat events. At the same time, cold weather events will still continue to occur with a sufficient frequency that plans need to be maintained.