Projections of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset
Projections of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.88.9.1337
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发表时间：
1998-09-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Kawas, C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brookmeyer, R;Gray, S;Kawas, C
目标.本研究的目的是预测美国阿尔茨海默病的未来患病率和发病率，以及干预措施对延迟疾病发作的潜在影响。在美国的个人数量与阿尔茨海默氏病的新诊断病例的数量，可以预期在未来50年内，估计从一个模型，使用特定年龄的发病率总结了几个流行病学研究，美国的死亡率，和美国人口普查局projects.Results.Results. 1997年，美国阿尔茨海默病的患病率为232万（范围：109万至458万）;这些人中，68%是女性。据预测，在未来50年内，患病率将几乎翻两番，届时大约每45个美国人中就有一个患有这种疾病。目前，每年新发病例数为36万例，如果干预措施能够将疾病的发病推迟2年，50年后的病例数将比预计减少近200万例;如果发病能延迟1年，那么流行病例将减少近80万例。结论，随着美国人口老龄化，老年痴呆症将成为一个巨大的公共卫生问题。即使是能够稍微延迟疾病发作的干预措施也会对公共卫生产生重大影响。
Objectives. The goal of this study was to project the future prevalence and incidence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the potential impact of interventions to delay disease onset.Methods. The numbers of individuals in the United States with AIzheimer's disease and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases that can be expected over the next 50 years were estimated from a model that used age-specific incidence rates summarized from several epidemiological studies, US mortality rates, and US Bureau of the Census projections.Results. In 1997, the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States was 2.32 million (range: 1.09 to 4.58 million); of these individuals, 68% were female. It is projected that the prevalence will nearly quadruple in the next 50 years, by which time approximately 1 in 45 Americans will be afflicted with the disease. Currently, the annual number of new incident cases is 360 000, If interventions could delay onset of the disease by 2 years, after 50 years there would be nearly 2 million fewer cases than projected; if onset could be delayed by 1 year, there would be nearly 800 000 fewer prevalent cases.Conclusions, As the US population ages, Alzheimer's disease will become an enormous public health problem. Interventions that could delay disease onset even modestly would have a major public health impact.