Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management
Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management
复制标题
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044007
复制
发表时间：
2008-10-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Alexander, Corinne E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.;Krupke, Christian H.;Alexander, Corinne E.
人们已经认识到，全球变暖将增加许多农业生态系统中虫害的流行。在本文中，我们定量评估四个关键的害虫玉米，在北美粮食生产中最重要的系统之一。使用经验产生的估计害虫越冬阈值和度日要求，沿着从高分辨率气候模型的气候变化预测，我们项目潜在的未来范围为这些害虫在美国。我们的分析表明，增加冬季生存的可能性和更大的度日积累的每一个害虫调查。我们发现，放宽冷限制可以扩大所有四种害虫类群的范围，包括玉米穗虫（H。玉米），一种迁移性的，不耐寒的害虫。由于玉米穗虫是一种世界性的害虫，对杀虫剂表现出抗药性，我们的研究结果表明，这种扩张也可能威胁到其他作物，包括美国西部高价值地区的作物。由于管理来自这套既定害虫的显著额外压力将需要额外的害虫管理投入，因此预计冷限制的减少和热量积累的增加有可能显著改变北美玉米生产的害虫管理格局。此外，这些范围的扩大可能通过增加种子和杀虫剂成本、降低产量以及作物产量变异性变化的下游影响而产生重大的经济影响。
It has been conjectured that global warming will increase the prevalence of insect pests in many agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we quantitatively assess four of the key pests of maize, one of the most important systems in North American grain production. Using empirically generated estimates of pest overwintering thresholds and degree-day requirements, along with climate change projections from a high-resolution climate model, we project potential future ranges for each of these pests in the United States. Our analysis suggests the possibility of increased winter survival and greater degree-day accumulations for each of the pests surveyed. We find that relaxed cold limitation could expand the range of all four pest taxa, including a substantial range expansion in the case of corn earworm (H. zea), a migratory, cold-intolerant pest. Because the corn earworm is a cosmopolitan pest that has shown resistance to insecticides, our results suggest that this expansion could also threaten other crops, including those in high-value areas of the western United States. Because managing significant additional pressure from this suite of established pests would require additional pest management inputs, the projected decreases in cold limitation and increases in heat accumulation have the potential to significantly alter the pest management landscape for North American maize production. Further, these range expansions could have substantial economic impacts through increased seed and insecticide costs, decreased yields, and the downstream effects of changes in crop yield variability.