Desertification Evolution Modeling through the Integration of GIS and Cellular Automata
Desertification Evolution Modeling through the Integration of GIS and Cellular Automata
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作者：
Chen Jian
荒漠化是当今世界最严重的环境和社会经济问题之一。荒漠化以其发展速度快、危害严重而引起国际学术界的广泛关注。定量研究荒漠化驱动因素与荒漠化之间的关系，建立动态模拟模型对预测荒漠化扩展具有重要意义。本文阐述了如何利用3S技术建立基于元胞自动机理论的荒漠化动态模拟模型。模型的设计基于栅格数据，分为荒漠化分布层和综合控制因子层两部分。因此，复合防治层作为模型的外部环境，对荒漠化扩展行为进行影响和控制。在分析荒漠化扩展综合机制的基础上，确定了荒漠化的6个影响因素，并利用优化层次分析法确定了该层次驱动因素的权重系数。在制定了一定的邻域配置和转化规律后，利用该模型对北京及周边地区荒漠化扩展进行了预测。模拟结果表明，该模型能有效地从宏观和微观两个方面模拟荒漠化扩展。研究表明，沙漠化对北京及周边地区的影响是长期的，但沙漠化的扩展主要发生在北京北部地区。
Desertification is one of the most serious environment and social economic problem nowadays in the world. Desertification causes extensive concern of international academia for its development speed and serious calamity. It's very significant to study quantitatively the relationships between desertification driving factors and desertification, and to build up dynamic simulation model to predict the expansion of desertification. This paper states how to build up desertification dynamic simulation model based on the cellular automata theory using 3S technology. The design of model based on grid data and embraced two parts: the layer of desertification distributing, and the layer of combination control factor. There fore, the layer of combination control acting as external environment of model impacts and controls the behaviour of desertification expansion. After analyzing syntheses mechanism of desertification expansion, we established six impact factors of desertification, and established this layer's weight coefficients of drive factors by using optimized Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). After making certain neighbor configuration and transformation rule,we utilized this model to predict desertification expansion in Beijing and its neighbouring areas. The result of the simulation proves that the model is effective to simulate desertification expansion in terms of macroscopic and microcosmic. According to the research we can say that the desertification has influence on Beijing and its neighbouring areas for a long time, but the desertification expansion mainly occurs in the northern areas of Beijing.