Biodiversity losses associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in six countries
Biodiversity losses associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in six countries
复制标题
全球变暖使六个国家的生物多样性损失比工业化前水平高 1.5 至 4°C
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-023-03666-2
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Price J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Price J
考虑到区域气候预测中的不确定性，我们量化了六个国家（中国、巴西、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、加纳和印度）的不同全球变暖水平对气候决定的植物和脊椎动物地理范围的预测影响。我们以一种空间明确的方式量化了物种的剩余或丢失的丰富度，从而确定了气候避难所，我们将其定义为目前全球变暖水平高于工业化前水平的世界中存在的bb0 - 75%的物种的地区。在所有国家和两个分类群中，物种丰富度随着气候变暖而下降，每个国家仍然是植物或脊椎动物气候避难所的比例也在下降。按百分比计算，与1961-1990年基线期相比，在相同的升温水平下，印度和巴西的难民损失最大，加纳和埃塞俄比亚的难民损失最小，而且植物的难民损失大于脊椎动物。考虑到目前的土地利用（即仍然被认为是自然的面积），并使用植物物种丰富度作为更普遍地指示生物多样性的代理，在5个国家中，作为生物多样性气候避难所的土地比例从1961-1990年基准期的32-75%下降到1.5°C全球变暖时的20-64%，2°C时的11-53%，3°C时的3 - 33%和4°C时的2 - 24%。在埃塞俄比亚、印度、巴西和中国，气候难民随着气候变暖迅速减少，而在加纳和中国，即使升温3-4°C，一些难民仍然存在。巴西、印度和中国只有一小部分地区既是气候避难所，又位于保护区内；因此，需要扩大这些国家的保护区网络，以实现具有气候适应性的生物多样性保护。这些百分比在埃塞俄比亚和加纳更大，在加纳的一些地区，仅存的避难所在保护区内，剩下的景观已转为其他用途。
We quantify the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the climatically determined geographic ranges of plants and vertebrates in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India), accounting for uncertainties in regional climate projection. We quantify in a spatially explicit fashion the species richness remaining or lost, allowing the identification of climate refugia which we define as areas where > 75% of the species currently present remain in a world with a particular level of global warming above pre-industrial levels. In all countries and in both taxa, species richness declines with warming, as does the proportion of each country remaining a climate refugium for plants or vertebrates. In percentage terms, refugia loss relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period is greatest in India and Brazil, and least in Ghana and Ethiopia for the same level of warming, and is greater for plants than for vertebrates. Taking account of present land uses (i.e. area still considered natural), and using species richness of plants as a proxy to indicate biodiversity more generally, the proportion of land acting as climate refugia for biodiversity in five of the countries variously declines from 32–75% of a country in the 1961–1990 baseline period to 20–64% for 1.5 °C global warming, 11–53% for 2 °C, 3–33% for 3 °C and 2–24% for 4 °C warming. In Ethiopia, India, Brazil and China, climate refugia decline rapidly with warming while in Ghana and China some refugia persist even with 3–4 °C of warming. Only small percentages of Brazil, India and China are both climate refugia and lie within protected areas; hence, an expansion of the protected area networks in these countries would be required to deliver climate resilient biodiversity conservation. These percentages are larger in Ethiopia and Ghana and, in some areas of Ghana, the only remaining refugia are in protected areas, the remaining landscape converted to other uses.