Extreme Tropical Precipitation Clusters Show Strong Increases in Frequency Under Global Warming in CMIP6 Models
Extreme Tropical Precipitation Clusters Show Strong Increases in Frequency Under Global Warming in CMIP6 Models
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl096037
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发表时间：
2022-02-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Neelin, J. David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dulguerov, Leilani;Ahmed, Fiaz;Neelin, J. David
降水团是空间上连续的降水区域。热带地区的大型集群是罕见的极端事件，包括有组织的降水系统。全球变暖下的热带降水集群的概率分布的变化进行了检查，使用耦合模式相互比较项目第6阶段（CMIP 6）的模式。每一个分析模型项目的频率显着增加非常大的规模集群和集群非常大的面积集成降水（集群功率）。在世纪末SSP 5 -8.5情景中，各模型中最高历史群集功率值的发生概率增加了4至15倍。这些变化主要发生在热带降水区：西太平洋、印度次大陆、中太平洋和东太平洋辐合带以及南美洲部分地区。这种空间格局在很大程度上是由Clausius-Clapeyron对当前气候集群功率值的缩放来解释的。在印度次大陆和西太平洋岛屿的沿海地区，集群权力增加的社会影响可能会很严重。
Precipitation clusters are spatially contiguous precipitating regions. Large clusters in the tropics are rare, extreme events that include organized precipitating systems. Changes to the probability distributions of tropical precipitation clusters under global warming are examined using models from the coupled model intercomparison project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Every analyzed model projects significant increases in frequencies of both very large-sized clusters and clusters with very large area-integrated precipitation (cluster power). The occurrence probability for the highest historical cluster power values increases by a factor between 4 and 15 among models in the end-of-century SSP5-8.5 scenario. These changes primarily occur over the precipitating tropics: the western Pacific, Indian subcontinent, central and east Pacific convergence zones, and parts of South America. This spatial pattern is largely explained by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of current climate cluster power values. Societal impacts of cluster power increases could be acute in coastal regions of the Indian subcontinent and western Pacific islands.