What mean impacts miss: Distributional effects of welfare reform experiments
What mean impacts miss: Distributional effects of welfare reform experiments
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DOI：
10.1257/aer.96.4.988
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发表时间：
2006-09-01
影响因子：
10.7
通讯作者：
Hoynes, Hilary W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bitler, Marianne P.;Gelbach, Jonah B.;Hoynes, Hilary W.
劳动力供给理论预测，最近的福利改革对收入、转移和收入的影响存在系统异质性。然而，大多数福利改革研究都聚焦于微不足道的影响。我们使用康涅狄格州就业优先豁免中的随机分配数据来调查异质性的重要性，该数据是1996年后福利计划的关键要素。估计的分位数处理效果显示出劳动力供给理论所预测的实质性异质性。因此，中等冲击会遗漏很多东西。分开观察辍学和其他女性的样本并不能改善平均影响的表现。我们的结论是，福利改革的影响可能比人们所认识到的更多样、更广泛。
Labor supply theory predicts systematic heterogeneity in the impact of recent welfare reforms on earnings, transfers, and income. Yet most welfare reform research focuses on mean impacts. We investigate the importance of heterogeneity using random-assignment data from Connecticut's Jobs First waiver, which features key elements of post-1996 welfare programs. Estimated quantile treatment effects exhibit the substantial heterogeneity predicted by labor supply theory. Thus mean impacts miss a great deal. Looking separately at samples of dropouts and other women does not improve the performance of mean impacts. We conclude that welfare reform's effects are likely both more varied and more extensive than has been recognized.