Analytical prediction of capsizing probability of a ship in beam wind and waves
Analytical prediction of capsizing probability of a ship in beam wind and waves
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Y. Ohkura;D. Paroka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Ohkura;D. Paroka
本文对Belenky（1993）关于横摇恢复力矩的分段线性近似公式作了简化和不简化，给出了一组计算横摇和波浪中船舶倾覆概率的公式。根据稳定性消失角附近横摇运动的随机性，提出了新的简化公式。这些公式适用于具有大风阻面积的汽车运输船。结果表明，采用视滚转角模型时，Belenky简化方法可能会高估船舶的倾覆概率。风和波浪中的倾覆概率肯定比单独的波浪中的倾覆概率更大。有人指出，更陡的波浪或更窄的波谱并不总是提供更大的倾覆概率。
This paper presents a set of formulae to evaluate capsizing probability of a ship in both beam wind and waves based on a piece-wise linear approximation of roll restoring moment with and without simplifications as an extension of the work by Belenky (1993). The new simplified formula is also proposed on the basis of stochastic properties of roll motion near the angle of vanishing stability. These formulae are applied to a car carrier having a large windage area. As a result, it was pointed out that Belenky's simplified method could overestimate capsizing probability if the apparent roll angle model is used. The capsizing probability in both wind and waves is definitely larger than that in waves on their own. It was remarked that steeper waves or narrower wave spectrum do not always provide larger capsizing probability.