A spatial-dependent model for climate emulation
A spatial-dependent model for climate emulation
复制标题
气候模拟的空间相关模型
DOI：
10.1002/env.2412
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Michael L. Stein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jingyu Bao;David J. McInerney;Michael L. Stein
为了研究与气候变化相关的影响和政策问题，能够预测一系列强迫情景的未来气候通常至关重要。复杂的气候模型可用于研究气候变化，但其运行成本昂贵，因此只能用于研究有限的情景。对于某些气候摘要，可以开发气候模型的统计模拟器，以准确、快速地再现气候模型输出。基于少量模型运行来训练这样的模拟器可能具有挑战性，特别是在以精细空间分辨率进行模拟时。这项工作考虑为特定气候模型 CCSM3 开发这样一个模拟器，作为大气二氧化碳浓度过去轨迹的函数。我们提出了一种新方法，通过结合空间变化系数模型和无限分布滞后模型，在气候模型的像素级别上拟合年度温度模拟器。该方法可以根据单个 CO2 轨迹的模型运行，捕获瞬态气候中气候模型输出的网格单元水平的年平均温度。我们将该方法应用于北美和非洲的年度温度仿真，并表明所得仿真器可以很好地预测年度温度，并且仿真器可以以计算有效的方式进行拟合。我们表明，模拟器的性能优于不考虑空间结构的程序。
For studying impacts and policy issues related to climate change, it is often critical to be able to forecast the future climate for a range of forcing scenarios. Complex climate models can be used to study climate change, but they are expensive to run, and thus, can only be used to investigate a limited number of scenarios. For some climate summaries, it is possible to develop a statistical emulator of the climate model that accurately and quickly reproduces the climate model output. Training such an emulator based on a small number of model runs can be challenging, especially when emulating at a fine spatial resolution. This work considers developing such an emulator for a specific climate model, CCSM3, as a function of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2concentrations. We propose a new approach to fitting an emulator for annual temperature at the pixel level of the climate model by combining a spatially varying coefficient model and an infinite distributed lag model. The approach can capture the annual mean temperature at grid‐cell level of climate model output in transient climates based on model runs from just a single CO2trajectory. We apply the approach to annual temperature emulation over North America and Africa, and show that the resulting emulator predicts annual temperature quite well and that the emulator can be fit in a computationally efficient manner. We show that the emulator outperforms procedures that do not take account of the spatial structure.