North Atlantic oscillation influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian peninsula
North Atlantic oscillation influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian peninsula
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.1048
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发表时间：
2004-06-30
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Esteban-Parra, MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Trigo, RM;Pozo-Vázquez, D;Esteban-Parra, MJ
伊比利亚半岛的降水和河流流量制度的特点是大值的年际变化，与大的差异，特别是在南伊比利亚之间的干湿年。这种情况是水资源管理的一个主要问题，特别是水力发电。水力发电代表。在一个平均降水年，西班牙总发电量的20%（葡萄牙发电量的35%）。然而，它的绝对值在丰水年和干旱年之间可以相差三倍。我们已经评估了北大西洋涛动（NAO）对冬季降水和河流流量制度的三个主要国际伊比利亚河流域，即杜罗河（北），Tejo（中心）和瓜迪亚纳（南）的影响。结果表明，这三条河流流量的年际变化很大程度上是由NAO现象调制。在整个世纪的大部分时间里，1月至3月的河流流量与12月至2月（DJF）的NAO指数的相关性比同期（DJF）的河流流量更好。1973- 1998年期间的科里奥利值非常显著（Douro为-0.76，Tejo为-0.77，Guadiana为-0.79），始终高于前几十年获得的震级。NAO对冬季河流流量的影响在西班牙总的潜在水力发电量方面进行了量化。北大西洋涛动的重要控制作用和最近北大西洋涛动指数的上升趋势导致了可用流量的显著减少。这种减少对伊比利亚两个经济体构成了重大危害，因为它对依赖水的资源产生了负面影响，如集约农业和水力发电。版权所有（C）2004皇家气象学会。
The Iberian Peninsula precipitation and river flow regimes are characterized by large values of inter-annual variability, with large disparities between wet and dry years, especially in Southern lberia. This Situation is a major problem for water resources management in general, and for the production of hydroelectricity in particular. Hydroelectric production represents. in an average year of precipitation, 20% of the total Spanish electricity production (and 35% for Portuguese production). Its absolute value, however, can vary by a factor of three between wet and dry years. We have assessed the impact of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on winter precipitation and river flow regimes for the three main international Iberian river basins, namely the Douro (north), the Tejo (centre) and the Guadiana (South). Results show that the large inter-annual variability in the flows of these three rivers is largely modulated by the NAO phenomenon. Throughout most of the 20th century, the January-to-March river flow is better correlated with the December to February (DJF) NAO index than is the simultaneous (DJF) river flow. Cori-elation values for the period 1973-98 are highly significant (-0.76 for Douro, -0.77 for Tejo and -0.79 for Guadiana), being consistently of higher magnitude than those obtained over previous decades. This impact of the NAO on winter river flow was quantified in terms of total Spanish potential hydroelectricity production. The important control exerted by the NAO and the recent positive trend in the NAO index contribute to a significant decrease in the available flow. This reduction represents an important hazard for the two Iberian economics because of its negative impact on water-dependent resources, such as intensive agriculture and hydroelectric power production. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society.