Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak
Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak
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DOI：
10.1029/2011gl046823
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发表时间：
2011-03-18
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Rinaldo, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bertuzzo, E.;Mari, L.;Rinaldo, A.
在这里，我们提出了当前海地霍乱爆发的剩余进展的空间明确预测，考虑到不同当地人类社区中易感和感染个体的动态，以及霍乱病原体霍乱弧菌在他们之间的再分配。传播机制包括病原体在水生环境中的扩散和由于人类携带者的运动而传播。该模型再现了迄今为止疫情的时空特征，从而表明预测该流行病未来发展的稳健性。我们估计，在不变的情况下，全国新增病例数应在1月份开始减少。本月，疫情将主要发生在西部省（太子港），而北部地区将逐渐消失。我们的空间显式模型还允许分析替代干预策略的有效性。为此，我们的结果表明，大规模接种疫苗在流行病的这个阶段的影响可以忽略不计。我们还表明，有针对性的卫生策略，提供清洁饮用水供应和/或开展旨在减少暴露的教育活动，可能会削弱感染残留演变的强度。引用本文：Bertuzzo， E.， L. Mari， L. Righetto， M. Gatto， R. Casagrandi， M. Blokesch， I. RodriguezIturbe和A. Rinaldo(2011)，海地霍乱爆发控制措施的空间演变和效果预测，地球物理学报。卷。， 38, L06403, doi: 10.1029/2011GL046823。
Here we propose spatially explicit predictions of the residual progression of the current Haiti cholera outbreak accounting for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals within different local human communities, and for the redistribution among them of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the disease. Spreading mechanisms include the diffusion of pathogens in the aquatic environment and their dissemination due to the movement of human carriers. The model reproduces the spatiotemporal features of the outbreak to date, thus suggesting the robustness of predicted future developments of the epidemic. We estimate that, under unchanged conditions, the number of new cases in the whole country should start to decrease in January. During this month the epidemic should mainly involve the Ouest department (Port-au-Prince) while fading out in northern regions. Our spatially explicit model allows also the analysis of the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies. To that end our results show that mass vaccinations would have a negligible impact at this stage of the epidemic. We also show that targeted sanitation strategies, providing clean drinking water supply and/or staging educational campaigns aimed at reducing exposure, may weaken the strength of the residual evolution of the infection. Citation: Bertuzzo, E., L. Mari, L. Righetto, M. Gatto, R. Casagrandi, M. Blokesch, I. RodriguezIturbe, and A. Rinaldo (2011), Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06403, doi: 10.1029/2011GL046823.