Nominal GDP Targeting and the Zero Lower Bound: Should We Abandon Inflation Targeting?
Nominal GDP Targeting and the Zero Lower Bound: Should We Abandon Inflation Targeting?
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名义GDP目标和零下限：我们应该放弃通胀目标吗？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2286656
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Billi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Billi
我比较了名义GDP水平目标制和灵活的通货膨胀目标制在一个小的新凯恩斯主义模型受名义政策利率为零下限。首先，我研究了最优自由裁量政策的绩效。我发现，在标准校准中，自由裁量下的通胀目标制会使经济陷入通缩陷阱。相比之下，自由裁量下的名义GDP水平目标为经济提供了一个坚实的名义锚。其次，我研究了简单的政策规则和规则中的平滑作用。通过平滑，泰勒型规则的表现与名义GDP水平规则一样好。这些结果表明，不应放弃通胀目标制。尽管如此，通过使用政策利率平滑来稳固锚住通胀，这一点仍可以得到显著改善。
I compare nominal GDP level targeting to flexible inflation targeting in a small New Keynesian model subject to the zero lower bound on nominal policy rates. First, I study the performance of optimal discretionary policies. I find that, for a standard calibration, inflation targeting under discretion leaves the economy open to a deflationary trap. Nominal GDP level targeting under discretion, by contrast, provides a firm nominal anchor to the economy. Second, I study simple policy rules and the role of smoothing in the rules. With smoothing, a Taylor-type rule performs as well as a nominal GDP level rule. These result suggest that inflation targeting should not be ditched. Still, it can be improved significantly, by using policy rate smoothing to anchor inflation firmly.