Task influences on judgemental forecasting
Task influences on judgemental forecasting
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任务对判断性预测的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Ayton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
George Wright;P. Ayton
本研究考察了迫切性、持续时间和主观合意性对判断性预测的影响。研究发现，人们对即将到来的一个月之后的一个月内发生的特定事件更有把握。预测期的持续时间为一个月而不是两个月，对预测反应和表现没有影响，事件的主观合意性对其感知可能性的任何影响都可以忽略不计。虽然获得了个体预测反应和表现一致性的证据，但概率评估中的个体一致性测量与预测表现无关。对预测任务的主观难度的衡量与预测绩效无关，这表明试图根据主观难度重新衡量预测反应以改善预测绩效的尝试是不合适的。
This study investigates the effect of imminence, time duration and subjective desirability on judgemental forecasts. People were found to be more sure of specified events happening in a one-month time period subsequent to an imminent one-month period. The time duration of a forecast period, one month versus two months, had no effect on forecasting response and performance and any effect of the subjective desirability of an event on its perceived likelihood was negligible. Although evidence of the consistency of individual forecasting response and performance was obtained, individual measures of coherence in probability assessment were not related to forecasting performance. A measure of the subjective difficulty of the forecasting task was not related to forecasting performance, indicating that attempts to re-scale forecasting responses to improve forecasting performance on the basis of subjective difficulty are inappropriate.