Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
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发表时间：
2012-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Teng, Haiyan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deser, Clara;Phillips, Adam;Teng, Haiyan
未来气候变化的不确定性是适应规划的一个关键挑战。在这项研究中，内部气候变率所产生的不确定性进行了调查，使用一个新的40个成员的集合进行与国家大气研究中心社区气候系统模式版本3（CCSM 3）下的SRES A1 B温室气体和臭氧恢复强迫情景在2000-2060年。固有的大气变率的总的不确定性的贡献进一步研究使用10,000年的控制集成的大气模式组件CCSM 3在固定边界条件下。全球气候响应的特点是冬季和夏季的气温、降水和海平面气压。在中高纬度地区模拟气候响应的不确定性的主要来源是与环流变率的环形模式相关的内部大气变率。耦合的海洋-大气变率在热带地区起着主导作用，并通过大气遥相关在高纬度地区产生相应的影响。强迫响应的不确定度一般是海平面气压大于降水，气温最小。因此，空气温度的强迫变化可以比大气环流和降水更早地被检测到，并且集合成员较少。对观测到的气候变化的探测和归因以及多模式气候评估的结果的影响进行了讨论。据估计，在CMIP 3多模式集合中，2005-2060年期间预测的气候趋势中，内部变率至少占模式间扩散的一半。
Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this study, uncertainty arising from internal climate variability is investigated using a new 40-member ensemble conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas and ozone recovery forcing scenarios during 2000-2060. The contribution of intrinsic atmospheric variability to the total uncertainty is further examined using a 10,000-year control integration of the atmospheric model component of CCSM3 under fixed boundary conditions. The global climate response is characterized in terms of air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure during winter and summer. The dominant source of uncertainty in the simulated climate response at middle and high latitudes is internal atmospheric variability associated with the annular modes of circulation variability. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability plays a dominant role in the tropics, with attendant effects at higher latitudes via atmospheric teleconnections. Uncertainties in the forced response are generally larger for sea level pressure than precipitation, and smallest for air temperature. Accordingly, forced changes in air temperature can be detected earlier and with fewer ensemble members than those in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Implications of the results for detection and attribution of observed climate change and for multi-model climate assessments are discussed. Internal variability is estimated to account for at least half of the inter-model spread in projected climate trends during 2005-2060 in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble.