Review of critical metal dynamics to 2050 for 48 elements
Review of critical metal dynamics to 2050 for 48 elements
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104669
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发表时间：
2020-04
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
T. Watari;K. Nansai;K. Nakajima
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Watari;K. Nansai;K. Nakajima
关键金属在技术上对各种新兴技术的功能至关重要，但它们的供应可能不稳定。这种情况要求根据这些金属的预期长期需求和供应及其所涉问题进行战略规划。在这里，我们提供了第一个系统的研究综述（共88项研究），探讨了各种关键材料的预测长期状态，涵盖了48个元素，546个数据点，到2030年和2050年的全球需求。有趣的是，结果表明，迄今为止，一些高临界金属没有长期需求前景。我们还发现，这些研究在很大程度上忽视了需求增长引起的社会和环境影响，导致较少关注全球供应链中消费国和生产国之间的空间差异。此外，包括部件再利用和再制造的循环经济战略几乎没有被纳入这些研究中提出的建模框架，而报废回收则受到高度关注。铟锌钢）的重要性没有得到充分重视，导致对未来的供应和可持续周期缺乏了解。所有这些研究结果都表明，需要进一步开展科学研究，探索关键金属的长期状况，这与联合国的可持续发展目标和《巴黎协定》的实施密切相关。
Critical metals are technologically vital to the functionality of various emerging technologies, yet they have a potentially unstable supply. This condition calls for strategic planning based on the expected long-term demand and supply of these metals and the implications attached. Here, we provide the first systematic review of studies (88 studies in all) exploring the projected long-term status of various critical materials, covering 48 elements with 546 data points for global demand through 2030 and 2050. Interestingly, results indicate that, to date, no long-term demand outlook is available for some high criticality metals. We also find that the social and environmental implications induced by demand growth are largely overlooked in these studies, resulting in less attention being given to the spatial divergence between consuming and producing countries in the global supply chain. Moreover, circular economy strategies that include component reuse and remanufacturing have been barely incorporated into the modelling frameworks presented in these studies, while end-of-life recycling is heavily focused on. In addition, elemental linkages (e.g., indium-zinc-steel) are underemphasized, leading to a lack of understanding of future availability and sustainable cycles. All of these findings affirm the need for further scientific research that explores the long-term status of critical metals, which strongly connects to the sustainable development goals of the United Nations and implementation of the Paris Agreement.