Supply and demand of new oil tankers
Supply and demand of new oil tankers
复制标题
新油轮的供需
DOI：
10.1080/03088839300000014
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发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Jin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Jin
本文研究了世界范围内对新油轮的供需情况。利用两阶段最小二乘技术和1972-1983年的经验数据，建立了一个同时供需模型并进行了估计。分析了油轮建造订单与价格以及其他相关市场因素之间的关系。确定了影响油轮新建市场的主要因素。结果表明：油价和二手油轮价格是影响未来新船需求的主要因素；闲置吨位的适度下降不会导致新船订单的显着增加；造船能力比造船成本对新船短期供应的影响更大。技术变革也在市场中发挥了重要作用。
This paper examines the world-wide supply and demand for new oil tankers. A simultaneous supply and demand model is developed and estimated using two-stage least squares techniques and empirical data from 1972 to 1983. The relationships between tanker newbuilding orders and prices, and other relevant market factors are analysed. Major factors affecting the tanker new building market are identified. The results indicate that: oil price and second-hand tanker price are predominant factors influencing future newbuilding demand; a moderate decrease in laid-up tonnage would not induce a significant increase in newbuilding orders; shipbuilding capacity is a more influential factor for the short-run supply of new tankers than shipbuilding cost. Technological change has also played an important role in the market.