Projections of US prevalence of arthritis and associated activity limitations
Projections of US prevalence of arthritis and associated activity limitations
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DOI：
10.1002/art.21562
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Helmick, CG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hootman, JM;Helmick, CG
目标。更新2005年至2030年美国18岁及以上成年人中自我报告的、医生诊断的关节炎和关节炎归因性活动受限的预测患病率。使用最新的监测病例定义，关节炎和活动受限的特定年龄和性别的基线患病率是从2003年全国健康访谈调查中估计出来的，这是一项针对大约31,000名成年人的年度、横断面、基于人口的健康访谈调查。这些估计被用来计算2005-2030年预计的关节炎患病率和活动限制，使用从美国人口普查局获得的未来人口预测。自报、医生诊断的关节炎患病率预计将从2005年的4780万增加到2030年的近6700万(占成年人口的25%)。到2030年，预计将有2500万人(占成年人口的9.3%)报告由关节炎引起的活动受限。到2030年，50%的关节炎病例将发生在65岁以上的成年人中。然而，劳动年龄成年人(45-岁)将占病例的近三分之一。到2030年，美国成年人患关节炎及其相关活动受限的人数预计将大幅增加，从而对个人、医疗保健系统和整个社会产生巨大影响。日益流行的肥胖症也可能大大加重未来关节炎的负担。通过改变生活方式和疾病自我管理，改善目前旨在改善关节炎患者生活质量的临床和公共卫生干预措施的可及性和可得性，可能有助于减轻长期影响。
Objective. To update the projected prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis and arthritis-attributable activity limitations among US adults ages 18 years and older from 2005 through 2030.Methods. Baseline age- and sex-specific prevalence rates of arthritis and activity limitation, using the latest surveillance case definitions, were estimated from the 2003 National Health Interview Survey, which is an annual, cross-sectional, population-based health interview survey of similar to 31,000 adults. These estimates were used to calculate projected arthritis prevalence and activity limitations for 2005-2030 using future population projections obtained from the US Census Bureau.Results. The prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis is projected to increase from 47.8 million in 2005 to nearly 67 million by 2030 (25% of the adult population). By 2030, 25 million (9.3% of the adult population) are projected to report arthritis-attributable activity limitations. In 2030, > 50% of arthritis cases will be among adults older than age 65 years. However, working-age adults (45-64 years) will account for almost one-third of cases.Conclusion. By 2030, the number of US adults with arthritis and its associated activity limitation is expected to increase substantially, resulting in a large impact on individuals, the health care system, and society in general. The growing epidemic of obesity may also significantly contribute to the future burden of arthritis. Improving access and availability of current clinical and public health interventions aimed at improving quality of life among persons with arthritis through lifestyle changes and disease self-management may help lessen the long-term impact.