Assessment of black carbon radiative effects in climate models
Assessment of black carbon radiative effects in climate models
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DOI：
10.1002/wcc.180
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发表时间：
2012-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Feichter;P. Stier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Feichter;P. Stier
化石燃料和生物质燃烧产生的黑碳（BC）吸收太阳辐射，可能会加剧温室气体变暖。因此，通过减少黑碳排放来应对气候变暖的想法应运而生。然而，黑碳排放通常伴随着其他气溶胶的共同排放，这些气溶胶主要分散并具有冷却作用，因此净强迫要小得多，从而降低了缓解潜力。此外，对云层的间接影响可能会产生额外的降温。由于现场测量无法对全球大气进行充分采样，而卫星数据也无法提供有关气溶胶吸收的必要详细信息，因此我们评估缓解效果的唯一工具是数值气候模型。对当前黑碳辐射效应模型估计的回顾给出了直接辐射强迫的平均估计为+0.33 W/m2，间接影响为-0.11 W/m2，通过碳黑沉积在雪/冰表面上的平均估计为+0.05 W/m2。这些估计的一个关键限制是其全局量化所需的数值模型没有受到观测的充分约束。此外，瞬时强迫的比较通常高估了炭黑的相对重要性，政策制定者应考虑替代指标，纳入时间范围。 WIREs 2012 年气候变化 doi: 10.1002/wcc.180
Black carbon (BC) from the burning of fossil fuel and biomass absorbs solar radiation and might intensify the greenhouse gas warming. Therefore, ideas to combat climate warming by reducing black carbon emissions emerged. However, black carbon emissions are generally accompanied by co‐emission of other aerosols that predominantly scatter and have a cooling effect, so that the net forcing is substantially smaller, reducing mitigation potentials. Moreover, indirect effects on clouds are likely to exert additional cooling. As in situ measurements do not sufficiently sample the global atmosphere and satellite data does not provide the necessary detail on aerosol absorption, our only tools to estimate the effect of mitigation are numerical climate models. A review of current model estimates of black carbon radiative effects gives an average estimate of the direct radiative forcing as +0.33 W/m2, indirect effects of −0.11 W/m2 and through BC deposition on snow/ice surfaces of about +0.05 W/m2. A key limitation of these estimates is that the numerical models required for their global quantification are insufficiently constrained by observations. In addition, the comparison of instantaneous forcings generally overestimates the relative importance of black carbon and policy makers should consider alternative metrics, incorporating time‐horizons. WIREs Clim Change 2012 doi: 10.1002/wcc.180