Ensemble warming projections in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir and potential adaptation strategies
Ensemble warming projections in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir and potential adaptation strategies
复制标题
德国最大饮用水水库的整体变暖预测和潜在的适应策略
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141366
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Karsten Rinke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chenxi Mi;Tom Shatwell;Jun Ma;Yaqian Xu;Fangli Su;Karsten Rinke
水库的热结构影响着水生生态系统的发展，并且会受到气候变化和管理策略的很大影响。我们应用了一个二维水动力模型来探索德国最大的饮用水水库Rappbode水库的热结构对未来气候预测和不同的取水策略的响应。我们使用了来自4个不同全球气候模式的代表性集中路径(RCP)2.6、6.0和8.5的预测。模拟结果表明，在所有三种气候情景下，水库表层水温都有较大幅度的升高。在RCP 2.6和RCP 6.0下，亚磁温度保持不变，而在RCP 8.5下，亚磁温度显著增加。在RCP 8.5的强烈变暖下，预计到本世纪末，低层温度将从5摄氏度上升到8摄氏度。在RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5下，水库的层结预计会更稳定，而在RCP 2.6下，水库的层结没有明显的变化。对于混合层内的光强度，也发现了类似的结果。此外，结果还表明，在强气候变暖(RCP8.5)下，地表撤退可以作为一种有效的适应策略，以减少地表变暖，避免亚极磁变暖。这项研究记录了如何将全球范围的气候预测转化为特定地点的气候影响，以得出水库运行的适应战略。此外，我们的结果表明，最强烈的变暖情景，即RCP 8.5，需要深远的气候适应，而缓解情景(RCP 2.6)不需要在2100年前适应水库管理。
The thermal structure in reservoirs affects the development of aquatic ecosystems, and can be substantially influenced by climate change and management strategies. We applied a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to explore the response of the thermal structure in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir, Rappbode Reservoir, to future climate projections and different water withdrawal strategies. We used projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 from an ensemble of 4 different global climate models. Simulation results showed that epilimnetic water temperatures in the reservoir strongly increased under all three climate scenarios. Hypolimnetic temperatures remained rather constant under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 but increased markedly under RCP 8.5. Under the intense warming in RCP 8.5, hypolimnion temperatures were projected to rise from 5 °C to 8 °C by the end of the century. Stratification in the reservoir was projected to be more stable under RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, but did not show significant changes under RCP 2.6. Similar results were found with respect to the light intensity within the mixed-layer. Moreover, the results suggested that surface withdrawal can be an effective adaptation strategy under strong climate warming (RCP 8.5) to reduce surface warming and avoid hypolimnetic warming. This study documents how global scale climate projections can be translated into site-specific climate impacts to derive adaptation strategies for reservoir operation. Moreover, our results illustrate that the most intense warming scenario, i.e. RCP 8.5, demands far-reaching climate adaptation while the mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6) does not require adaptation of reservoir management before 2100.