Market value of solar power: Is photovoltaics cost-competitive?
Market value of solar power: Is photovoltaics cost-competitive?
复制标题
太阳能发电的市场价值：光伏发电是否具有成本竞争力？
DOI：
10.1049/iet-rpg.2014.0101
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Lion Hirth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lion Hirth
本文回顾了太阳能作为并网发电来源的经济性。人们普遍认为成本
太阳能发电量有所下降，但其经济价值如何存在分歧
应该计算。 “电网平价”将发电成本与零售价格进行比较，是一种经常使用但存在缺陷的经济评估指标，因为它忽略了电网费用、征税和税收。它还没有考虑到电力在某些时间点和某些地点比其他地点更有价值的事实。比零售价更好的衡量标准是太阳能的“市场价值”。本文解释了原因，并根据文献综述、德国现货市场分析和数字电力市场模型 EMMA 提供了太阳能市场价值的实证估计。在渗透率较低（<2-5%）的情况下，太阳能的市场价值高于平均批发电价，主要是因为当电力需求较高时，太阳往往会发光。随着渗透率的提高，市场价值下降——太阳能溢价变成了太阳能惩罚。在德国，随着太阳能渗透率从零增加到4.7%，太阳能发电的价值已从平均电价的133%下降到98%。这一价值下降幅度比风电的价值下降幅度更大，因为太阳能发电在时间上更加集中。因此，在没有补贴的情况下进行大规模太阳能部署将比许多观察家预期的更加困难。
This paper reviews the economics of solar power as a source of grid-connected electricity generation. It is widely acknowledged that costs
of solar power have declined, but there is disagreement how its economic value
should be calculated. `Grid parity', comparing generation costs to the retail price, is an often used yet flawed metric for economic assessment, as it ignores grid fees, levies, and taxes. It also fails to account for the fact that electricity is more valuable at some points in time and at some locations than that at others. A better yardstick than the retail price is solar power's `market value'. This paper explains why, and provides empirical estimates of the solar market value from a literature review, German spot market analysis, and the numerical electricity market model EMMA. At low penetration rates (<;2-5%) solar power's market value turns out to be higher than the average wholesale electricity price - mainly, because the sun tends to shine when electricity demand is high. With increasing penetration, the market value declines - the solar premium turns into a solar penalty. In Germany, the value of solar power has fallen from 133% of the average electricity price to 98% as solar penetration increased from zero to 4.7%. This value drop is steeper than wind power's value drop, because solar generation is more concentrated in time. As a consequence, large-scale solar deployment without subsidies will be more difficult to accomplish than many observers have anticipated.