Factoring out natural and indirect human effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks
Factoring out natural and indirect human effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2007.01.009
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发表时间：
2007-06-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Yamagata, Yoshiki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Canadell, Josep G.;Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.;Yamagata, Yoshiki
划分自然的、间接的和直接的人类诱导的对陆地碳(C)源和汇的影响的能力对于能够预测未来的陆地碳动态以及它们对大气CO2增长的影响是必要的。然而，我们需要几年时间才能更好地将各种C过程对净C平衡的贡献的定量估计归因于此。在政策方面，剔除人为直接影响对碳源和碳汇的自然和间接人为影响，被视为C核算方法的一项要求，该方法在人类活动和C贷方和借方的分配之间建立了明确和毫不含糊的联系。我们提出了各种影响因素的选择，包括气候变异性、二氧化碳和氮肥，以及森林管理的遗产。这些措施是：(1)选择较长的会计或计量期间，以减少年际变异性的影响；(2)修正国家清单的年际变异性；(3)使用基于活动的核算和C反应曲线；(4)在国家一级使用基准情景或基准；(5)将情况分层为具有不同平均C库存的单位。其他更复杂的建模方法(例如结合森林清单的人口统计模型；基于过程的模型)是未来C核算系统的可能选择，但其复杂性和数据要求使其目前在包容性国际C核算系统中更难采用。(C)2007爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
The capacity to partition natural, indirect, and direct human-induced effects on terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks is necessary to be able to predict future terrestrial C dynamics and thus their influence on atmospheric CO2 growth. However, it will take a number of years before we can better attribute quantitative estimates of the contribution of various C processes to the net C balance. In a policy context, factoring out natural and indirect human-induced effects on C sources and sinks from the direct human-induced influences, is seen as a requirement of a C accounting approach that establishes a clear and unambiguous connection between human activities and the assignment of C credits and debits. We present options for factoring out various groups of influences including climate variability, CO2 and N fertilization, and legacies from forest management. These are: (i) selecting longer accounting or measurement periods to reduce the effects of inter-annual variability; (ii) correction of national inventories for inter-annual variability; (iii) use of activity-based accounting and C response curves; (iv) use of baseline scenarios or benchmarks at the national level; (v) stratification of the landscape into units with distinct average C stocks. Other, more sophisticated modeling approaches (e.g., demographic models in combination with forest inventories; process-based models) are possible options for future C accounting systems but their complexity and data requirements make their present adoption more difficult in an inclusive international C accounting system. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.