The contribution of emission sources to the future air pollution disease burden in China
The contribution of emission sources to the future air pollution disease burden in China
复制标题
排放源对中国未来大气污染疾病负担的贡献
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac6f6f
复制
发表时间：
2022-06-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Spracklen, Dominick, V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Conibear, Luke;Reddington, Carly L.;Spracklen, Dominick, V
在中国，空气污染是一个主要的公共健康问题。尽管最近空气质量有所改善，但细颗粒物（PM2.5）暴露仍然很大，相关的疾病负担很大，预计人口老龄化将增加对疾病的易感性。在此，我们使用区域化学运输模型模拟器来量化未来排放情景对中国空气污染暴露的影响。我们估计了主要排放部门如何对暴露于空气污染中的这些未来健康影响作出贡献。我们发现，在2020-2050年期间，中国PM2.5暴露量在所有情景下都有所下降，在现行空气质量立法下减少15%，在充分利用空气污染物减排技术潜力时减少36%，在将技术减排潜力与排放控制相结合以减缓气候变化时减少39%。然而，人口老龄化意味着，2050年现行立法规定的PM2.5疾病负担（CLE）将比2020年增加17%。与2050年的CLE相比，最佳空气污染技术的应用提供了实质性的健康效益，将PM2.5疾病负担减少了16%，每年避免536600人（95%不确定区间，95UI: 49700 - 57300）过早死亡。这些公共健康效益主要是由于工业（43%）和住宅（30%）排放的减少。气候减缓努力与最佳空气污染技术相结合，可使PM2.5疾病负担进一步减少2%，每年可避免57 000人（95UI: 52 800-61 100）过早死亡。假设在关键部门有效实施和执行目前承诺的空气质量政策，到2030年，已经实现了2020-2050年PM2.5暴露减少量的90%。要在2030年后减少PM2.5暴露和相关疾病负担，就需要进一步收紧受监管部门的排放限制，解决农业和废物管理等其他来源的问题，并采取国际协调行动，减轻亚洲各地的空气污染。
Air pollution exposure is a leading public health problem in China. Despite recent air quality improvements, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure remains large, the associated disease burden is substantial, and population ageing is projected to increase the susceptibility to disease. Here, we used emulators of a regional chemical transport model to quantify the impacts of future emission scenarios on air pollution exposure in China. We estimated how key emission sectors contribute to these future health impacts from air pollution exposure. We found that PM2.5 exposure declines in all scenarios across China over 2020-2050, with reductions of 15% under current air quality legislation, 36% when exploiting the full potential of air pollutant emission reduction technologies, and 39% when that technical mitigation potential is combined with emission controls for climate mitigation. However, population ageing means that the PM2.5 disease burden under current legislation (CLE) increases by 17% in 2050 relative to 2020. In comparison to CLE in 2050, the application of the best air pollution technologies provides substantial health benefits, reducing the PM2.5 disease burden by 16%, avoiding 536 600 (95% uncertainty interval, 95UI: 497 800-573 300) premature deaths per year. These public health benefits are mainly due to reductions in industrial (43%) and residential (30%) emissions. Climate mitigation efforts combined with the best air pollution technologies leads to an additional 2% reduction in the PM2.5 disease burden, avoiding 57 000 (95UI: 52 800-61 100) premature deaths per year. Up to 90% of the 2020-2050 reductions in PM2.5 exposure are already achieved by 2030, assuming efficient implementation and enforcement of currently committed air quality policies in key sectors. Achieving reductions in PM2.5 exposure and the associated disease burden after 2030 will require further tightening of emission limits for regulated sectors, addressing other sources including agriculture and waste management, and international coordinated action to mitigate air pollution across Asia.