Why is life expectancy in England and Wales "stalling'?
Why is life expectancy in England and Wales "stalling'?
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DOI：
10.1136/jech-2017-210401
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Dorling, Danny
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hiam, Lucinda;Harrison, Dominic;Dorling, Danny
流行病学家和精算师的几项独立分析得出结论，英格兰和威尔士预期寿命的提高速度现在已经明显放缓，在老年人中甚至可能逆转。然而，尽管这些调查结果导致养老金行业减少了对未来负债的估计，但它们未能引起卫生和社会保健部的任何重大关注。在这篇文章中，我们回顾了预期寿命变化的证据，注意到老年妇女的问题最大。然后，我们估计现在的预期寿命与如果以前的趋势继续下去的预期寿命之间的差距。在85岁时，妇女的差距为0.34岁，男子为0.23岁。我们认为，最近的变化不能被视为暂时的异常现象。虽然这一现象的原因存在争议，但越来越多的证据表明，近年来实施的紧缩政策至少是部分原因。最后，我们呼吁进行一次完全独立的调查，以确定英格兰和威尔士的预期寿命发生了什么变化，以及应该采取什么措施。
Several independent analyses, by both epidemiologists and actuaries, have concluded that the previous rate of improvement of life expectancy in England and Wales has now slowed markedly, and at older ages may even be reversing. However, although these findings have led the pension industry to reduce estimates of future liabilities, they have failed to elicit any significant concern in the Department of Health and Social Care. In this essay, we review the evidence on changing life expectancy, noting that the problems are greatest among older women. We then estimate the gap between what life expectancy is now and what it might have been had previous trends continued. At age 85, the gap is 0.34 years for women and 0.23 for men. We argue that recent changes cannot be dismissed as a temporary aberration. While the causes of this phenomenon are contested, there is growing evidence to point to the austerity policies implemented in recent years as at least a partial explanation. We conclude by calling for a fully independent enquiry to ascertain what is happening to life expectancy in England and Wales and what should be done about it.