Rethinking the Measurement of Household Inflation Expectations: Preliminary Findings
Rethinking the Measurement of Household Inflation Expectations: Preliminary Findings
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重新思考家庭通胀预期的衡量：初步发现
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1320196
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Simon M. Potter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Simon M. Potter
本文报告了纽约联邦储备银行旨在改善通胀预期调查指标的研究计划的初步结果。我们发现，调查中提及通胀的方式看似微小的差异可能会导致受访者考虑截然不同的价格概念。对于近期通胀，路透社/密歇根大学每月消费者调查中的“总体价格”问题可以引起关注最明显价格（例如汽油或食品）的反应。关于“通货膨胀率”的问题可能会导致对美国公民普遍支付的价格的回应——一种更接近经济学家心目中的通货膨胀定义的解释或概念；它们还导致报告的通货膨胀水平较低，并减少受访者之间的分歧。此外，我们还提供了与新调查问题相关的结果，这些问题评估了个人对未来通胀结果以及未来预期工资变化的不确定性程度。最后，利用调查的面板维度，我们发现个人反应在预期通胀水平和预测不确定性方面都表现出相当大的持久性。更加不确定的受访者在下一次调查中对自己的期望进行了更大的修正。
This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly different price concepts. For near-term inflation, the "prices in general" question in the monthly Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers can elicit responses that focus on the most visible prices, such as gasoline or food. Questions on the "rate of inflation" can lead to responses on the prices that U.S. citizens pay in general - an interpretation, or concept, closer to the definition of inflation that economists have in mind; they also lead to both lower levels of reported inflation and to lower disagreement among respondents. In addition, we present results associated with new survey questions that assess the degree of individual uncertainty about future inflation outcomes as well as future expected wage changes. Finally, using the panel dimension of the surveys, we find that individual responses exhibit considerable persistence, both in the expected level of inflation and in forecast uncertainty. Respondents who are more uncertain make larger revisions to their expectations in the next survey.