Covenant of mayors signatories leading the way towards 1.5 degree global warming pathway
Covenant of mayors signatories leading the way towards 1.5 degree global warming pathway
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scs.2018.05.017
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
影响因子：
11.7
通讯作者：
Dallemand, Jean Francois
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kona, Albana;Bertoldi, Paolo;Dallemand, Jean Francois
越来越多的城市和地方政府加入了减缓气候变化的跨国倡议，但缺乏对它们对《巴黎协定》承诺的贡献进行量化。为解决这一问题，对《市长公约》签署国到2050年的气候减缓轨迹进行了研究。截至2017年10月，已有超过7600个签名，覆盖2.38亿居民，主要来自欧洲城市。其中533个国家已经报告了其气候行动计划的实施情况，207个国家宣布了2020年以后的长期目标。我们从地理分布、减排目标和成就方面考察了《共同宣言》签署国的总体努力，并讨论了预计的减排是否符合将全球变暖限制在2摄氏度或1.5摄氏度以内的途径。鉴于目前提出长期愿景的签署国数量有限，我们采用了外推法来估计到2050年的个别轨迹。为此，CoM数据集根据三个因素进行了分类：气候特征、城市化程度和追求二氧化碳减排的目标水平。结果证实，气候变化委员会倡议在促进实现雄心勃勃的本世纪中叶减缓气候变化目标方面具有巨大潜力。
An increasing number of cities and local governments adhere to transnational initiatives on climate change mitigation, but quantification of their contribution to the Paris Agreement commitments is lacking. To address this, the climate mitigation trajectory to 2050 of Covenant of Mayors (CoM) signatories has been studied. As of October 2017 there are more than 7600 signatories covering 238 million inhabitants, mainly from European cities. Of these 533 have already reported on the implementation of their climate action plans and 207 signatories have declared a long term target beyond 2020. We examine the aggregated effort of the CoM signatories in terms of geographical distribution, mitigation ambition and achievements, and also discuss whether the projected emissions reductions are in line with pathways to limit global warming to 2 degrees C or 1.5 degrees C. Given the currently limited number of signatories presenting long-term visions, an extrapolation method has been applied to estimate of the individual trajectories to 2050. For this purpose the CoM dataset was divided in clusters on the basis of three factors: climatic features, degree of urbanization and the level ambition in pursuing CO2 emissions reductions. Results confirm the large potential of the CoM initiative to contribute to ambitious mid-century climate change mitigation targets.