The Dynamics of an Aging Population: the Case of Four OECD Countries
The Dynamics of an Aging Population: the Case of Four OECD Countries
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人口老龄化的动态：四个经合组织国家的案例
DOI：
10.3386/w2797
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发表时间：
1989
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Nicoletti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Auerbach;L. Kotlikoff;R. Hagemann;G. Nicoletti
人口结构的变化，如大多数经合组织国家预期的变化，具有许多影响一国财政生存能力的经济影响。要评估资本-劳动比率的相关变化以及不同世代的福利和行为的影响，需要使用动态一般均衡模型。在奥尔巴赫和科特利科夫(1987，第11章)中提出的75代人-250岁的人口模拟模型已被修改，纳入了遗产行为、技术变化、经济对国际贸易开放的可能性，以及取决于人口年龄构成的政府消费支出。该模型被进一步调整，以研究日本、德意志联邦共和国、瑞典和美国即将发生的人口变化的影响。模拟结果表明，这些变化将对国民储蓄率、实际工资率和经常账户产生重大影响。这篇论文的一个基本教训是，允许进行一般均衡调整可以减少抚养比增加带来的不利福利影响。然而，福利成本，特别是福利成本在不同群体之间的分配，在某些情况下给政策制定者带来了严峻的挑战。
Demographic changes, such as those anticipated in most OECD countries, have many economics effects that impinge on a country's fiscal viability. Evaluation of the effects of associated changes in capital-labor ratios and the welfare and behavior of different generations requires the use of a dynamic general equilibrium model. The 75 generations - 250 year demographic simulation model, presented in Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987, Chapter 11), has been modified to incorporate bequest behavior, technological change, the possibility that the economy is open to international trade, and government consumption expenditures that depend on the age composition of the population. The model has been further adapted to study the effects of impending demographic changes in Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, Sweden and the United States. The simulation results indicate that these changes will have a major impact on rates of national saving, real wage rate and current accounts. One of this paper's fundamental lessons is that allowing for general equilibrium adjustments reduces the adverse welfare effects of increasing dependency ratios. Nevertheless, the welfare costs, and particularly their distributions across cohorts, pose serious challenges for policy makers in some cases.