Hybrid modeling of China's vehicle ownership and projection through 2050
Hybrid modeling of China's vehicle ownership and projection through 2050
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.055
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Yi, Ran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hao, Han;Wang, Hewu;Yi, Ran
作为新兴汽车市场的代表，中国是世界上汽车保有量增长最快的国家之一。庞大且不断增长的汽车存量极大地推动了中国能源需求和温室气体排放的快速增长。预测中国的汽车保有量是一个重要的问题，这在很大程度上决定了中国未来的石油需求和道路交通行业的温室气体排放。在本研究中，我们建立了一个包含三个子模型的混合动力模型来模拟中国私人乘用车、城市公共交通车辆和经济型多功能车的增长模式。通过使用该模型，我们预测到2020年、2030年和2050年，中国的汽车保有量将分别达到1848亿、3638亿和6.067亿。城市私人乘用车的快速增长是车辆数量增长的主要动力。到2020年、2030年和2050年，城市私人乘用车保有量将分别占机动车总保有量的70.1%、81.1%和86.1%。敏感性分析表明，机动车人口对家庭收入和车价的影响相当敏感，为调控机动车人口增长提供了有效的杠杆。(c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
As representative for emerging vehicle market, China has one of the fastest growing rates of automobile ownership in the world. The huge and increasing vehicle stock has significantly contributed to the fast growing of China's energy demand and GHG emissions. It is an important issue to project China's vehicle ownership, which to a large extent determines China's oil demand and GHG emissions from road transportation sector in the future. In this study, we established a hybrid model with three sub models to simulate the growth patterns of China's private passenger vehicles, urban public transport vehicles and economic utility vehicles. By using this model, we projected that China's vehicle population would reach 184.8, 363.8 and 606.7 million by 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. The fast increase of urban private passenger vehicles is the main driving force for vehicle population growth. Population of urban private passenger vehicles would account for 70.1%, 81.1% and 86.1% of total vehicle population in 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. It was demonstrated by sensitivity analysis that vehicle population was quite sensitive to household income and vehicle price, implying an effective lever for regulating the growth of vehicle population. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.