Census timing alters stage duration distributions in matrix population models
Census timing alters stage duration distributions in matrix population models
复制标题
人口普查时间改变了矩阵人口模型中的阶段持续时间分布
作者：
T. Okuyama
摘要矩阵种群模型被广泛用于研究阶段结构种群的动力学。在这些模型中，人口普查是一个事件，监测每个阶段的个人数量，并以离散的时间间隔进行。构建矩阵种群模型最常用的两种方法是繁殖前普查和繁殖后普查。使用繁殖前和繁殖后普查的模型分别假设繁殖发生在普查之前或之后。在一些模型中，例如年龄结构模型，无论使用哪种方法，结果都是相同的，因此选择哪种方法是一个偏好问题。然而，在阶段结构模型中，生命第一阶段的持续时间因新生儿而异，在生育前和生育后普查之间的选择可能会导致不同的结论。这归因于两种方法假定的第一阶段持续时间分布不同。本研究调查了这些模型在结构上出现的差异及其对两阶段模型的特征值和弹性分析结论的影响。文中还讨论了选择建模方法时需要考虑的问题。
Abstract Matrix population models are widely used to study the dynamics of stage‐structured populations. A census in these models is an event monitoring the number of individuals in each stage and occurs at discrete time intervals. The two most common methods used in building matrix population models are the prebreeding census and postbreeding census. Models using the prebreeding and postbreeding censuses assume that breeding occurs immediately before or immediately after the censuses, respectively. In some models such as age‐structured models, the results are identical regardless of the method used, rendering the choice of method a matter of preference. However, in stage‐structured models, where the duration of the first stage of life varies among newborns, a choice between the prebreeding and postbreeding censuses may result in different conclusions. This is attributed to the different first‐stage duration distributions assumed by the two methods. This study investigated the difference emerging in the structures of these models and its consequence on conclusions of eigenvalue and elasticity analyses using two‐stage models. Considerations required in choosing a modeling method are also discussed.