Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming
Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming
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DOI：
10.1029/2021ef002048
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发表时间：
2021-10
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Thompson;S. Gosling;Jamal Zaherpour;C. Laizé
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作者：
J. Thompson;S. Gosling;Jamal Zaherpour;C. Laizé
河流的水文特征，包括高流量和低流量的大小和时间，是其生态功能的重要决定因素。气候变化将改变这些特征，引发河流生态系统的生态变化。该研究评估了全球变暖相对于工业化前1.0、1.5、2.0和3.0°C条件下造成的地球仪321个主要河流流域生态变化的风险。与气候驱动的高流量和低流量变化相关的风险，相对于基线（1980-2010年; 0.6°C变暖），使用来自9个全球水文模型的模拟与来自5个全球气候模型的气候预测相结合，每个变暖情景（9 × 5 × 321）产生14，445个基线情景成员。在全球范围内，随着全球变暖，高流量和低流量的重大生态变化的高风险可能性增加：在所有流域中，对于1.0°C变暖，21.4%（22.4%）的集合成员的高（低）流量变化的风险为中高，3.0°C增加到61.5%（63.2%）。对于南美洲、南部非洲、澳大利亚、南欧和美国中部和东部的许多河流，3.0°C的低流量风险尤其明显。结果表明，北方地区是最不可能看到显着的生态变化，由于修改河流流量，但这可能是部分排除的过程，如冻土动力学从大多数全球水文模型的结果。该研究强调了未缓解的气候变化对全球河流生态系统造成的生态脆弱性和空间异质性风险。
The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems. This study assesses risks of ecological change in 321 major river basins across the globe due to global warming relative to pre‐industrial conditions of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0°C. Risks associated with climate‐driven changes to high and low flows, relative to baseline (1980–2010; 0.6°C warming), are investigated using simulations from nine global hydrological models forced with climate projections from five global climate models, resulting in an ensemble of 14,445 baseline‐scenario members for each warming scenario (9 × 5 × 321). At the global‐scale, the likelihood of high risks of significant ecological change in both high and low flows increase with global warming: across all basins there is a medium‐high risk of change in high (low) flows in 21.4% (22.4%) of ensemble members for 1.0°C warming, increasing to 61.5% (63.2%) for 3.0°C. Risks are particularly pronounced for low flows at 3.0°C for many rivers in South America, southern Africa, Australia, southern Europe and central and eastern USA. Results suggest that boreal regions are least likely to see significant ecological change due to modified river flows but this may be partly the result of the exclusion of processes such as permafrost dynamics from most global hydrological models. The study highlights the ecological fragility and spatial heterogeneity of the risks that unmitigated climate change poses to global river ecosystems.