Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: What determines the state-of-play?
Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: What determines the state-of-play?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2010.09.003
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发表时间：
2010-11-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Hinkel, Jochen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kranz, Nicole;Menniken, Timo;Hinkel, Jochen
随着气候变化，以及随之而来的适应气候变化影响的需要，如温度升高、雨季降水量增加、旱季降水量减少等，预计管理跨界水资源的挑战将会增加。特别是河流流域委员会正在出现，以应对这一挑战和其他挑战。气候变化适应战略处于起步阶段本文以橙子河流域和湄公河流域为例，运用制度有效性分析方法，对两个流域在气候变化适应方面取得的不同进展进行了分析。在气候变化适应政策的形成过程中，两个流域中的每一个都处于哪个阶段。然后，我们试图通过制度有效性理论来解释适应的不同程度。气候变化适应的背景我们发现，不同程度的进展可以部分地由制度有效性的一些变量来解释，如规则和程序的特征、组织结构、沿岸国家的作用以及国际背景。同时，分析指出，需要分析可能影响气候变化决策和政策过程的其他因素国际河流流域的适应，如（a）水文、政治和社会经济背景（B）区域合作（或冲突）的基本原则（c）谈判进程中各行为体的利益和价值观，以及（d）与其他政策领域的可能联系和权衡（C）2010 Elsevier Ltd
The challenge of governing transboundary water resources is expected to increase with climate change and the resulting need to adapt to its impacts such as temperature increase more precipitation in the wet season and less m the dry season In a number of transboundary basins international regimes, and in particular river basin commissions are emerging to account for this and other challenges Some basins are however rather advanced in terms of developing climate change adaptation strategies while others are in a more nascent stage For the two case studies of the Orange Senqu and Mekong river basins this paper attempts to explain the different degrees of progress towards climate change adaptation by applying regime effectiveness analysis First we analyze using the Activity Diagram (AD) of the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) at which stage in the climate change adaptation policy formation process each of the two basins is Then we attempt to explain the different degrees of progress towards adaptation by means of regime effectiveness theory Variables indicating regime effectiveness are taken from the literature and further developed to suit the context of climate change adaptation We find that the different degrees of progress can partially be explained by some variables of regime effectiveness such as the characteristics of rules and procedures organizational structure the role of riparian countries as well as international context At the same time the analysis points to the need for an analysis of additional factors that potentially shape decision making and policy processes for climate change adaptation in international river basins such as (a) the hydrological political and socio economic setting (b) underlying principles of regional cooperation (or conflict) (c) interests and values of the various actors in the negotiation process and (d) the possible linkages and trade offs with other policy fields (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved