Exploration of Sustainable Urban Transportation Development in China through the Forecast of Private Vehicle Ownership
Exploration of Sustainable Urban Transportation Development in China through the Forecast of Private Vehicle Ownership
复制标题
通过私家车保有量预测探索中国城市交通可持续发展
DOI：
10.3390/su11164259
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Hu, Yike
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Yang;Miao, Lu;Hu, Yike
随着我国城市化进程的加快，城市交通问题日益严重。特别是私人车辆拥有量的迅速扩大，已成为实现可持续城市转型的障碍之一。本文运用Gompertz模型，利用中国省际数据分析了私人汽车保有量与人均GDP之间的非线性关系。此外，我们对2019 - 2030年中国31个省份的私人汽车保有量进行了预测，并根据不同场景预测了每个省份达到1000人汽车保有量上限的时间。主要调查结果显示，中国各省私人汽车拥有量呈S形发展，目前正处于加速增长的过程中。在人均GDP年增长率为6%的情景下，中国私人汽车保有量将在2020年、2025年和2030年分别达到2.46亿辆、3.75亿辆和4.75亿辆。这表明，中国私人汽车保有量的扩大将带来重大挑战，如与道路车辆相关的化石燃料消耗、污染物排放、交通拥堵和报废汽车回收。这些问题将日益突出。在湖北、河北、湖南等中部城镇化率在50 - 60%的省份，收入提升的巨大潜力将显著刺激私人汽车保有量的增加，2032年、2037年和2046年将在人均GDP年增长率8%的情况下达到各省1000人汽车保有量的上限，6%和4%。
With the acceleration of China's urbanization process, the urban transportation problem has become increasingly serious. The rapid expansion of private vehicle ownership, in particular, has become one of the barriers to the realization of sustainable urban transition. This paper applied the Gompertz model to analyze the non-linear relationship between private vehicle ownership and per capita GDP in China using provincial data. In addition, we forecasted private vehicle ownership for 31 Chinese provinces for the period of 2019-2030 and predicted the time to reach the upper limit of 1000 people vehicle ownership of each province according to different scenarios. The main findings revealed that the number of private vehicles owned in China's provinces was in line with S-shaped development and was currently in the process of accelerated growth. Under the scenario of an annual per capita GDP growth rate of 6%, China's private vehicle ownership will reach 246 million, 375 million, and 475 million in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively. This indicates that China's expansion of private vehicle ownership will generate significant challenges, such as on-road vehicle-related fossil fuel consumption, pollutant emissions, traffic congestion, and scrapped vehicle recycling. These issues will become increasingly prominent. In provinces such as Hubei, Hebei, Hunan, and other central provinces that have a 50-60% urbanization rate, the large potential for income promotion will significantly stimulate the increase in private vehicle ownership, and the upper limit of 1000 people vehicle ownership in each province will be reached in 2032, 2037, and 2046 with annual per capita GDP growth rates of 8%, 6%, and 4%, respectively.