No clear association emerges between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 fatality rates from macro-level analyses
No clear association emerges between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 fatality rates from macro-level analyses
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2008581117
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发表时间：
2020-08-11
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Pasqualini, Marta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arpino, Bruno;Bordone, Valeria;Pasqualini, Marta
2019年底，新型冠状病毒（sars）发源于中国武汉，并迅速蔓延至100多个国家。不同领域的研究人员一直在努力寻找这种病毒的不平等影响和相关冠状病毒疾病2019 （COVID-19）在不同地理区域造成的死亡的解释。人口学家和其他社会科学家已经暗示了人口因素的重要性，比如年龄结构和代际关系。我们的目的是批判性地反思代际关系与COVID-19的传播和致命性之间可能存在的联系。我们表明，利用现有的汇总数据，不可能得出有力的证据来支持这些联系。事实上，尽管代际同居和接触的流行率较高，在国家一级与COVID-19病例死亡率普遍呈正相关，但在国家以下一级，情况通常相反。虽然这种不一致的证据既不能证明代际关系与COVID-19的严重程度之间存在因果关系，也不能证明不存在因果关系，但我们警告不要对现有数据进行简单化的解释，这些数据存在许多缺陷。我们的结论是，代际关系不仅仅是家庭成员之间的身体接触。从理论上讲，不同形式的代际关系可能对COVID-19的传播产生相反的因果影响。政策还应考虑到代际关系是工具和情感支持的来源，这可能有利于遵守封锁和“第二阶段”限制，并可能缓解其对心理健康的负面影响。
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 originated in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and rapidly spread in more than 100 countries. Researchers in different fields have been working on finding explanations for the unequal impact of the virus and deaths from the associated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across geographical areas. Demographers and other social scientists have hinted at the importance of demographic factors, such as age structure and intergenerational relationships. Our aim is to reflect on the possible link between intergenerational relationships and spread and lethality of COVID-19 in a critical way. We show that with available aggregate data it is not possible to draw robust evidence to support these links. In fact, despite a higher prevalence of intergenerational coresidence and contacts that is broadly positively associated with COVID-19 case fatality rates at the country level, the opposite is generally true at the subnational level. While this inconsistent evidence demonstrates neither the existence nor the absence of a causal link between intergenerational relationships and the severity of COVID-19, we warn against simplistic interpretations of the available data, which suffer from many shortcomings. We conclude by arguing that intergenerational relationships are not only about physical contacts between family members. Theoretically, different forms of intergenerational relationships may have causal effects of opposite sign on the diffusion of COVID-19. Policies should also take into account that intergenerational ties are a source of instrumental and emotional support, which may favor compliance to the lockdown and "phase-2" restrictions and may buffer their negative consequences on mental health.