Historical evolution of global and regional surface air temperature simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2: How reliable are the model results?
Historical evolution of global and regional surface air temperature simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2: How reliable are the model results?
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DOI：
10.1007/s00376-013-2205-1
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发表时间：
2013-04
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Tianjun Zhou;F. Song;Xiaolong Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tianjun Zhou;F. Song;Xiaolong Chen
为了评估两个版本的IAP/LASG灵活的全球海洋-大气-陆地系统（FGOALS）模式的性能，模拟的地表空气温度（SAT）的变化，从自然和人为强迫，进行了比较，在全球，半球，大陆和区域尺度的观测1850-2005年期间。FGOALS-g2很好地再现了1850-2005年期间SAT及其陆地和海洋组成部分的全球和半球平均值，相关系数显著，均方根误差较小。这种显著的正相关首先是由变暖趋势决定的，其次是由年代际波动决定的。小波分析和去趋势数据的显着正相关表明，模型再现年代际SAT变化的能力。观测到的海陆热力对比度变化模拟效果不佳。FGOALS-s2的主要弱点是对人为强迫的夸大变暖反应，模拟结果与20世纪50年代以前的观测结果相去甚远。这些观测显示了变暖的趋势全球、北方和南半球的平均温度（1906-2005年）分别为0.71、0.68和0.79°C（100年）− 1，FGOALS-s2 [1.42、1.52和1.13°C（100年）−1]高估了这些温度，但FGOALS-g2 [0.69、0.68和0.73°C（100年）−1]低估了这些温度。在FGOALS 2中，变暖趋势的极性放大被夸大了，但在FGOALS-g2中再现得很弱。FGOALS-s2对人为强迫的强烈响应是由强的海冰冰反馈和水汽反馈引起的。对15个选定的次大陆尺度区域的模型结果进行的检查表明，FGOALS-g2在大多数区域的性能是合理的。然而，FGOALS-s2在大多数区域高估了观测到的变暖趋势。在东亚地区，FGOALS-s2（FGOALS-g2）模拟的增暖趋势的纬向梯度比观测值强（弱）。
In order to assess the performance of two versions of the IAP/LASG Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model, simulated changes in surface air temperature (SAT), from natural and anthropogenic forcings, were compared to observations for the period 1850–2005 at global, hemispheric, continental and regional scales. The global and hemispheric averages of SAT and their land and ocean components during 1850–2005 were well reproduced by FGOALS-g2, as evidenced by significant correlation coefficients and small RMSEs. The significant positive correlations were firstly determined by the warming trends, and secondly by interdecadal fluctuations. The abilities of the models to reproduce interdecadal SAT variations were demonstrated by both wavelet analysis and significant positive correlations for detrended data. The observed land-sea thermal contrast change was poorly simulated. The major weakness of FGOALS-s2 was an exaggerated warming response to anthropogenic forcing, with the simulation showing results that were far removed from observations prior to the 1950s. The observations featured warming trends (1906–2005) of 0.71, 0.68 and 0.79°C (100 yr)−1for global, Northern and Southern Hemispheric averages, which were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 [1.42, 1.52 and 1.13°C (100 yr)−1] but underestimated by FGOALS-g2 [0.69, 0.68 and 0.73°C (100 yr)−1]. The polar amplification of the warming trend was exaggerated in FGOALSs2 but weakly reproduced in FGOALS-g2. The stronger response of FGOALS-s2 to anthropogenic forcing was caused by strong sea-ice albedo feedback and water vapor feedback. Examination of model results in 15 selected subcontinental-scale regions showed reasonable performance for FGOALS-g2 over most regions. However, the observed warming trends were overestimated by FGOALS-s2 in most regions. Over East Asia, the meridional gradient of the warming trend simulated by FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) was stronger (weaker) than observed.