BAYESIAN SPLINE METHOD FOR ASSESSING EXTREME LOADS ON WIND TURBINES
BAYESIAN SPLINE METHOD FOR ASSESSING EXTREME LOADS ON WIND TURBINES
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评估风力涡轮机极端载荷的贝叶斯样条法
DOI：
10.1214/13-aoas670
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yu Ding
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Giwhyun Lee;E. Byon;Lewis Ntaimo;Yu Ding
本研究提出一种贝叶斯参数模型，用于估计风力涡轮机上的极端负载。极限载荷是施加在涡轮机结构上的最高应力水平，该最高应力水平是涡轮机在其使用寿命期间将经历的。风力涡轮机应被设计成抵抗这样的高负载以避免灾难性的结构故障。为了评估极端载荷，通过进行现场测量活动或进行气动弹性模拟研究来评估涡轮机结构响应。一般来说，在任何一种情况下获得的数据都不足以代表所有可能的天气条件下的各种载荷响应。为了表征涡轮机使用寿命中的结构载荷，需要进行适当的外推。本研究设计了一种贝叶斯样条方法，用于此外推目的，使用在比涡轮机的使用寿命短得多的时间内收集的负载数据。应用样条方法对三组涡轮机的载荷响应数据进行处理，以估计涡轮机叶片根部相应的极限载荷。与当前的行业实践相比，样条方法似乎提供了更好的极限载荷评估。
This study presents a Bayesian parametric model for the purpose of estimating the extreme load on a wind turbine. The extreme load is the highest stress level imposed on a turbine structure that the turbine would experience during its service lifetime. A wind turbine should be designed to resist such a high load to avoid catastrophic structural failures. To assess the extreme load, turbine structural responses are evaluated by conducting field measurement campaigns or performing aeroelastic simulation studies. In general, data obtained in either case are not sufficient to represent various loading responses under all possible weather conditions. An appropriate extrapolation is necessary to characterize the structural loads in a turbine’s service life. This study devises a Bayesian spline method for this extrapolation purpose, using load data collected in a period much shorter than a turbine’s service life. The spline method is applied to three sets of turbine’s load response data to estimate the corresponding extreme loads at the roots of the turbine blades. Compared to the current industry practice, the spline method appears to provide better extreme load assessment.