Covid-19 Doesn&Apos;T Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs: The Effect of Local Outbreaks in Korea
Covid-19 Doesn&Apos;T Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs: The Effect of Local Outbreaks in Korea
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Covid-19 不
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yongseok Shin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Aum;Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee;Yongseok Shin
与大多数国家不同，韩国在抗击COVID-19的斗争中没有实施封锁，而是成功地依靠检测和接触者追踪。只有一个地区，大邱庆北（DG），有大量的感染，追溯到一个宗教教派。这使我们能够估计疫情对劳动力市场的因果影响，使用差异中的差异。我们发现，感染率每增加千分之一，就会导致当地就业率下降2%至3%。美国和英国实施了大规模封锁，对这一系数的非因果估计在5%到6%之间，这表明美国和英国最多有一半的失业可以归因于封锁。我们还发现，在没有封锁的情况下，局部疫情造成的就业损失（i）主要是由于小型企业的招聘减少，（ii）集中在住宿/食品，教育，真实的房地产和运输行业，（iii）即使控制了行业影响，受教育程度较低，年轻，低工资职业和临时合同的经济脆弱工人也是最糟糕的。所有这些模式与我们在美国和英国观察到的情况相似：无论是否实施封锁，COVID-19的影响都是不平等的。我们的发现表明，除非COVID-19感染率下降，否则美国和英国解除封锁可能只会导致就业温和复苏。
Unlike most countries, Korea did not implement a lockdown in its battle against COVID-19, instead successfully relying on testing and contact tracing. Only one region, Daegu-Gyeongbuk (DG), had a significant number of infections, traced to a religious sect. This allows us to estimate the causal effect of the outbreak on the labor market using difference-in-differences. We find that a one per thousand increase in infections causes a 2 to 3 percent drop in local employment. Non-causal estimates of this coefficient from the US and UK, which implemented large-scale lockdowns, range from 5 to 6 percent, suggesting that at most half of the job losses in the US and UK can be attributed to lockdowns. We also find that employment losses caused by local outbreaks in the absence of lockdowns are (i) mainly due to reduced hiring by small establishments, (ii) concentrated in the accommodation/food, education, real estate, and transportation industries, and (iii) worst for the economically vulnerable workers who are less educated, young, in low-wage occupations, and on temporary contracts, even controlling for industry effects. All these patterns are similar to what we observe in the US and UK: The unequal effects of COVID-19 are the same with or without lockdowns. Our finding suggests that the lifting of lockdowns in the US and UK may lead to only modest recoveries in employment unless COVID-19 infection rates fall.