An Update on the Influence of Natural Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones
An Update on the Influence of Natural Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.10.001
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发表时间：
2023-10
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Suzana J. Camargo;Hiroyuki Murakami;N. Bloemendaal;S. Chand;Medha S. Deshpande;Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento-Christian-Domi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Suzana J. Camargo;Hiroyuki Murakami;N. Bloemendaal;S. Chand;Medha S. Deshpande;Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento-Christian-Domi
自2018年第九届国际热带气旋研讨会（IWTC-9）以来，已经发表了大量研究，提高了我们对气候变化对热带气旋（TC）及其相关危害和风险的影响的理解。这些研究加强了TC强度增加的鲁棒性，以及人为气候变化造成的相关TC危害和风险。新的模拟和观测研究表明，在十年和世纪时间尺度上，包括温室气体和气溶胶在内的人为气候强迫对全球和区域TC活动的潜在影响。然而，由于模式在模拟大西洋历史TC年代际变化方面的不确定性以及观测TC记录的局限性，仍然存在很大的不确定性。自IWTC-9以来，由于一些气候模式预测TC频率增加，因此预测的全球TC数量未来变化变得更加不确定。一个新的范例，TC种子，已被提出，目前有一个辩论种子是否可以帮助解释的物理机制背后的预测变化，在全球TC的频率。新的研究还强调了大规模环境场对TC活动的重要性，如积雪和海气相互作用。对TC翻译速度和药物的未来预测是我们报告中新的额外重点主题。提出了与剩余科学问题相关的建议和今后的研究，以协助决策者。
A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales. However, there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic, and the limitations of observed TC records. The projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models. A new paradigm, TC seeds, has been proposed, and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency. New studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity, such as snow cover and air-sea interactions. Future projections on TC translation speed and medicanes are new additional focus topics in our report. Recommendations and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers.