An information theory based robustness analysis of energy mix in US States
An information theory based robustness analysis of energy mix in US States
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.035
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Derrible, Sybil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ahmad, Nasir;Derrible, Sybil
在本研究中，我们使用香农熵来研究美国 50 个州电网组合的演变，以识别状态转变和远离化石燃料的稳定过渡。特别是20世纪70年代发生的一系列重大事件导致美国大多数州开始寻找化石燃料的部分替代品来发电。我们特别观察了 1968 年至 1980 年间 26 个州的变化。从稳健性的角度来看，更多样化的电网组合更可取的前提出发，通过使用 2015 年的数据，我们评估了所有州在多种能源中断情景下的响应，并检测了三种不同类别的状态：脆弱（10 个州）、中等稳健（17 个州）和稳健（23 个州）。预计一些州特别容易受到影响，因为它们主要依赖单一能源（例如，西弗吉尼亚州 95% 使用煤炭）。相比之下，我们发现七个州（即南达科他州、伊利诺伊州、佛蒙特州、康涅狄格州、缅因州、纽约州和新泽西州）的能源结构特别强劲，但 2015 年化石燃料份额低于 50%。
In this study, we use Shannon entropy to study the evolution of the 50 United States (US) states electricity grid mix to identify regime shifts and steady transitions away from fossil fuels. In particular, a series of major events in the 1970s led most states in the US to look for partial alternatives to fossil fuels for electricity generation. We notably observe changes for 26 states between the years 1968 and 1980. Starting with the premise that a more diversified grid mix is preferable from a robustness viewpoint, and by using 2015 data, we then evaluate the response of all states under multiple energy source disruption scenarios and detect three different classes of states: vulnerable (10 states), moderately robust (17 states), and robust (23 states). Expectedly, some states are particularly vulnerable as they depend predominantly on a single energy source (e.g., West Virginia with 95% coal usage). In contrast, we find seven states (i.e., South Dakota, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut, Maine, New York, and New Jersey) that have particularly robust energy mix, while having fossil fuel shares below 50% in 2015.