Working Paper 12-34 December 2012 Infl ation and Output in New Keynesian Models with a Transient Interest Rate Peg
Working Paper 12-34 December 2012 Infl ation and Output in New Keynesian Models with a Transient Interest Rate Peg
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工作论文 2012 年 12 月 12-34 日 新凯恩斯主义模型中的通货膨胀和产出
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
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通讯作者：
Matthias O. Paustian
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作者：
Charles T. Carlstrom;Timothy S. Fuerst;Matthias O. Paustian
克利夫兰联邦储备银行的工作文件是初步的材料，用于激发讨论和对正在进行的研究的批评意见。他们可能没有受到正式的编辑审查给予官方联邦储备银行克利夫兰出版物。本文所陈述的观点是作者的观点，不一定是克利夫兰联邦储备银行或联邦储备系统理事会的观点。最近的货币政策经验表明，对货币非中性的模型进行简单的诊断。假设中央银行在一段合理的短时间内将名义利率固定在稳态以下。熟悉的直觉表明，这应该是适度的通货膨胀，一个合理的模型应该提供这样的预测。我们在熟悉的动态新凯恩斯（DNK）模型的几个变体中进行这种简单的诊断。该模型的一些变体产生了反直觉的通货膨胀逆转，其中，利率挂钩的效果可以从高度通货膨胀转变为高度通货紧缩，而利率挂钩的长度只有适度的变化。奇怪的是，这种不寻常的行为并没有出现在菲利普斯曲线的粘性信息模型中。夫人和克利夫兰联邦储备银行（tfuerst@nd.edu）。Matthias Paustian在英格兰银行（matthias. paustian@www.example.com）工作。bankofengland.co.uk本文所表达的观点是作者的观点，而不一定是英格兰银行的观点。
Working papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded offi cial Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views stated herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple diagnostic for models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be modestly infl ationary, and a reasonable model should deliver such a prediction. We pursue this simple diagnostic in several variants of the familiar Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model. Some variants of the model produce counterintuitive infl ation reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly infl ationary to highly defl ationary for only modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg. Curiously, this unusual behavior does not arise in a sticky information model of the Phillips curve. Dame and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (tfuerst@nd.edu). Matthias Paustian is at the Bank of England (matthias.paustian@bankofengland.co.uk). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the Bank of England.