Reassessment and update of long‐term trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over Europe (1939–2012)
Reassessment and update of long‐term trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over Europe (1939–2012)
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DOI：
10.1002/2015jd023321
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发表时间：
2015-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Sanchez‐Lorenzo;M. Wild;M. Brunetti;J. Guijarro;M. Hakuba;J. Calbó;S. Mystakidis;B. Bartók
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Sanchez‐Lorenzo;M. Wild;M. Brunetti;J. Guijarro;M. Hakuba;J. Calbó;S. Mystakidis;B. Bartók
本文介绍了欧洲地面向下短波辐射（SSR）的趋势，这些趋势是基于全球能源平衡档案中主要集中在中欧的56个最长的系列。特别强调的是，既要确保时间上的一致性，又要将最近几年的数据纳入数据集。我们首次生成了欧洲1939-2012年的复合时间序列，并通过运行趋势分析进行了研究。从20世纪30年代末到20世纪50年代初，SSR的年平均值有所增加（即，早期增亮），随后减少直到20世纪80年代中期（即，全球变暗）和随后的直到21世纪初的增加（即，全局增亮）。这一系列数据的结尾是自世纪初以来的稳定趋势，但短时间内不足以确定欧洲的趋势是否确实正在发生变化。季节性和区域性的系列也提出了，这突出了类似的变化，获得了欧洲各地的大部分季节和地区。事实上，由于SSR序列的强空间相关性，很少有序列足以捕获几乎相同的年际和年代际变化，使用密集的站网络。SSR的年代际变化预计将对欧洲的温度和其他过程的调制产生影响，这些过程与水文循环、农业生产或自然生态系统的变化有关。为了更好地传播本研究所编制的时间序列，为科学目的免费提供数据集。
This paper presents trends in downward surface shortwave radiation (SSR) over Europe, which are based on the 56 longest series available from the Global Energy Balance Archive that are mainly concentrated in central Europe. Special emphasis has been placed on both ensuring the temporal homogeneity and including the most recent years in the data set. We have generated, for the first time, composite time series for Europe covering the period 1939–2012, which have been studied by means of running trend analysis. The mean annual SSR series shows an increase from the late 1930s to the early 1950s (i.e., early brightening), followed by a reduction until mid‐1980s (i.e., global dimming) and a subsequent increase up to the early 2000s (i.e., global brightening). The series ends with a tendency of stabilization since the early 21st century, but the short time period is insufficient with regard to establishing whether a change in the trend is actually emerging over Europe. Seasonal and regional series are also presented, which highlight that similar variations are obtained for most of the seasons and regions across Europe. In fact, due to the strong spatial correlation in the SSR series, few series are enough to capture almost the same interannual and decadal variability as using a dense network of stations. Decadal variations of the SSR are expected to have an impact on the modulation of the temperatures and other processes over Europe linked with changes in the hydrological cycle, agriculture production, or natural ecosystems. For a better dissemination of the time series developed in this study, the data set is freely available for scientific purposes.